Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) won’t run for Senate in Wisconsin, leaving the GOP primary field wide-open in a key swing state that Republicans are eyeing to flip as part of their efforts to win control of the upper chamber next year.
Tiffany will instead run for reelection in Wisconsin’s 7th District, backing out of a challenge against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) who has held the Senate seat for longer than a decade. Tiffany’s decision leaves Republicans without a declared candidate in the key Senate race, which is shaping up to be one of the most competitive elections in the 2024 cycle.
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“Let there be no doubt, I will continue to hold the Biden administration accountable for their fiscal recklessness, open border disaster, and the weaponization of the Justice Department against the American people,” Tiffany said in a statement. “America and Wisconsin can do better than the current status quo. I look forward to working with our nominees for President and U.S. Senate to turn Wisconsin red in 2024.”
Tiffany’s decision comes less than two months after fellow Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) similarly announced he would not run for Senate next year, leaving Republicans without a field just one year before the primary elections.
Wisconsin Democrats were quick to seize on the news, blaming Tiffany’s “ultra-MAGA” and “extremist” voting record as the determining factor of his decision — arguing he “doesn’t hold a candle” to Baldwin’s reelection chances. Baldwin won by 11 points in 2018.
“This leaves Republicans staring down a messy and chaotic Senate primary with two self-funding millionaires and Sheriff David Clarke ready to enter the race,” Arik Wolk, rapid response director of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, said in a statement.
At least three possible candidates have sparked rumors of running for the GOP nomination: Clarke, Eric Hovde, who lost the GOP Senate primary in 2012, and businessman Scott Mayer. Early polling shows Clarke with an early lead in a hypothetical three-way primary, but the former sheriff has not made any moves toward declaring his candidacy.
The Wisconsin Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the 2024 cycle, with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report rating it as “lean Democrat” in its initial predictions. However, Baldwin benefits from widespread name recognition and fundraising prowess.
There are a total of 34 Senate seats up for grabs in the 2024 election cycle. Of these, Democrats must defend 23, compared to just 11 for Republicans. The circumstances put Republicans in a strong position to flip some crucial seats that could easily shift the current balance of power in the upper chamber.
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Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, with the advantage of having Vice President Kamala Harris as a tiebreaking vote if needed.
As a result, Republicans only need to flip one Senate seat to win the majority should they win back the White House in 2024. If they don’t regain the Oval Office, the party only needs to secure two extra Senate seats.