


President Donald Trump‘s polling is down six months into his second administration, but that does not mean Democrats have an advantage before next year’s midterm elections.
Trump’s approval rating is averaging less than a percentage point better than it was post-Liberation Day at 45.5%, but the president’s disapproval rating is at its worst of his second administration, now at 53%, according to RealClearPolitics.
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Trump’s favorable-unfavorable ratings are also at their worst in his second administration.
Trump’s polling is despite what the president considers accomplishments, from his One Big Beautiful Bill Act, record-low illegal border crossings, and last month’s strikes against three of Iran‘s uranium enrichment nuclear facilities.
“No other president in American history has worked harder or faster than President Trump to deliver on his campaign promises,” White House spokeswoman Liz Huston told the Washington Examiner. “In just six months, President Trump has ushered in a new Golden Age for America by securing the border, passing the largest middle class tax cuts in American history, and defeating Joe Biden’s inflation crisis. The American people are fully behind President Trump.”
Pollsters, including Democratic strategist Celinda Lake, underscore that Trump’s polling is, in part, because of his accomplishments. Trump’s numbers also coincide with criticism of his administration’s management of files regarding the federal investigation into Jeffrey Epstein, before his tariff policy could exacerbate inflation.
Lake, in particular, cited Trump’s policies regarding Medicaid, which she contended have undermined the president in rural America, and immigration, which have had similar repercussions for him among young people “because of the racism and militarization.”
In addition to extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act cuts spending on entitlement programs, including Medicaid and food stamps. Medicaid work requirements will not be implemented until after the 2026 elections.
However, Lake emphasized that Trump’s polling is down not only because of his substance, but also because of his “style,” especially among women. The pollster similarly argued the president’s “lack of focus on affordability” has undercut him with independent and blue-collar voters.
“He’s seen as reckless and chaotic,” she told the Washington Examiner. “People think prices are going up and the economy is declining.”
For another pollster, Suffolk University Political Research Center director David Paleologos, “sometimes in politics, it’s less about what you did and more about what you didn’t do.” Paleologos specifically pointed to Trump’s increasing disapproval among men, even young men, who helped him win last year’s presidential election.
“These are the demographics who listen and follow top U.S. podcaster Joe Rogan, who has repeatedly railed against the Trump administration for its sleight of [hand with] the Epstein files,” Paleologos told the Washington Examiner. “These voters may care less about what Trump did with Epstein, and more about why he hasn’t delivered on what he promised them. And it suggests that even Trump is powerless to a bigger, darker Deep State that they feared all along. Or that Trump is just like the rest of the politicians, they curse.”
A White House official countered that Trump has “historic support among Republicans, unifying congressional Republicans to pass his historic One, Big, Beautiful Bill.”
“According to the same [RealClearPolitics] average, President Trump is enjoying a higher approval rating than former Presidents Bush and Obama at this point in their second term, with much more hostile media coverage,” the official told the Washington Examiner.
Meanwhile, while Trump’s favorable-unfavorable rating is net negative 7 points, Democrats’ is net negative 21 points, according to RealClearPolitics.
Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy underlined his survey last week, which reported that congressional Democrats have their lowest approval rating since his university started asking registered voters about the party’s lawmakers in 2009. Democrats in Congress have a 19% approval rating, according to Quinnipiac University. Their previous low was 21% in February and June.
“If the approval numbers for Republicans are bad, then the approval numbers for Democrats can be characterized as flat out terrible,” Malloy told reporters at the time.
To the Washington Examiner, the pollster added, “Trump’s approval remains in [the] low forties, but his approval on the economy, and immigration, and all the major issues is worsening in every poll we’ve done in the last three months.”
But of the Democratic polling, Lake, herself a Democrat, maintained that her party “can’t just be against [Trump].”
“They need to aggressively offer an alternative,” she said.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Suzan DelBene (D-WA) defended Democrats when asked about the party’s polling and denied that a rebrand was necessary.
House Republicans currently have a three-seat majority, with 18 competitive races next year, according to the Cook Political Report. Senate Republicans have a larger majority, and the GOP has a more advantageous map.
“When we talk about cost of living, etc., these are urgent issues for American families, and they are absolutely frustrated with the dysfunction, the chaos that they see in Washington, D.C.,” DelBene told the Washington Examiner. “They want strong representatives who are going to stand up for them.”
DelBene pointed to the 14 House seats that both Trump and Democratic candidates won in 2024 as evidence that Democrats “had people who were talking directly to voters, who were talking about the issues that matter, and there was a trust.”
“That’s why I feel optimistic as we go forward: because people are focused on the candidates and the individuals who are standing up for them, and we see that in data too,” the lawmaker said. “When you talk to people about these members of Congress, they think they have strong members of Congress. So there’s the brand writ large and then there’s the person I know who is standing up for me.”
She continued, “When we have great candidates on the ground who are authentic, independent-minded for their communities, we win. And that was true last time, and that will be true again.”
National Republican Congressional Committee press secretary Mike Marinella criticized the DCCC for being in “denial about their record of failures.”
“If they want to run on a platform of sky-high prices, surging crime, open borders, launching a war on law enforcement, and out-of-touch radical policies, we’ll support them every step of the way,” Marinella told the Washington Examiner.
At the same time, Democrats hope to use the August recess period to amplify criticism of Trump regarding the administration’s handling of the Epstein files after House Speaker Mike Johnson told his lawmakers they could depart Congress a day early to avoid votes.
“Republicans are literally shutting down the House floor and getting ready to go on vacation early just to weasel out of releasing the Epstein files,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin told reporters earlier this week. “While the American people elected leaders to fight for law and order and do their damn jobs, Republicans are bending the knee to Donald Trump and protecting an infamous sex trafficker. Make no mistake: Americans will remember this lack of transparency and cowardly act at the ballot box.”