‘UNFAZED,’ PUTIN PLANS TO SOLDIER ON: An analysis by Washington-based Institute for the Study of War has assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to ignore President Donald Trump’s 50-day tariff threat, believing that Russia can withstand the economic pressure and can fully achieve its war aims.
“Putin’s theory of victory continues to drive his unwillingness to compromise on his pre-war demand for Ukraine’s capitulation,” the ISW said in the July 15 assessment. “Russia views any attempt to make demands of Russia, ‘especially ultimatums,’ as ‘unacceptable,’” the assessment said, quoting remarks by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov reported by Tass.
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The ISW assessment also cited reporting by Reuters, based on “three sources close to the Kremlin,” as claiming Putin is “unfazed” by Trump’s threat of tougher sanctions, “will fight on until [the] West engages with his terms,” and that “appetite for territory may increase as Russia advances.”
Reuters said the three Russian sources, who are “familiar with top-level Kremlin thinking,” said “Putin will not stop the war under pressure from the West and believes Russia — which has survived the toughest sanctions imposed by the West — can endure further economic hardship, including threatened U.S. tariffs targeting buyers of Russian oil.”
“Putin thinks no one has seriously engaged with him on the details of peace in Ukraine, including the Americans, so he will continue until he gets what he wants,” one of the sources told Reuters.
“ISW continues to assess that Putin holds a theory of victory that posits that Russia can achieve its war aims by continuing to make creeping gains on the battlefield indefinitely and outlasting Western support for Ukraine and Ukraine’s ability to defend itself,” the think tank concluded.
ZELENSKY: PUTIN AFRAID TO END THE WAR: In an interview with NewsMax in Kyiv Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told correspondent Shelby Wilder that “all of America and Europe know that we want peace and an end to the war, but the Russians understand only force. So, only strong sanctions and only strong weapons. We are ready for action, for a demonstration of force.”
Zelensky said one reason Putin is hesitant to stop the war is that 1.2 million battle-scared soldiers, who would be returning home with little to show for their efforts. “Russia still does not have a plan for what to do with the 1.2 million mobilized when they return. This is also one of the reasons why the war is dragging on.”
“Why is he afraid of a ceasefire? One of the reasons is that these people will return home. All these mobilized people will return to Russia, and what will happen to them?” Zelensky said. “Psychologically, they are unstable. They did not fight to protect their homes. They did not fight for themselves. They will come back different.”
Zelensky said that ending the war will require two things: more powerful offensive weapons to threaten Russia and sanctions that Russia can’t get around. “These are the two things Ukraine has always asked for from the United States; we have never received them in full. There were sanctions, but not all of them, and many of them could be circumvented.”
“I would really like us to have a strong demonstration of strength that forces Putin to the negotiating table … a powerful weapon, a deterrent weapon, a weapon that will show the enemy strength,” Zelensky said. “It is not a fact that we will have to use this force, but if Russia knows about its existence, it is already a strong argument for ending the war.”
50-DAY WINDOW: Meanwhile Putin is giving every indication he’s girding for the war to extend into next year.
“His generals are telling him that the war is trending into positive direction for the Russians, that despite the colossal losses that Ukrainians were able to inflict on the Russian invaders in the war of attrition, the bigger party, the Russians, will have an advantage over Ukraine, and that probably Ukrainian self-defense effort will run its course by beginning of this September or fall,” Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said on CNN Sunday.
“I don’t think that the Russians believe that the economic pressure toolkit is full of new, shiny objects that can really deliver a desirable effect on Russia,” Gabuev told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria. “Indeed, his primary concern is the battlefield, where the West is unlikely to provide Ukraine with tools to reconquer all of the occupied territories, including Crimea.”
“Putin believes that he can have his way and he can push and pursue his war aims and arrive at peace on his conditions, which means subjugation of Ukraine, breaking the line that connects Ukraine’s self-defense effort with the Western military intelligence machine and defense industrial complex, and leaving rump state of Ukraine on trajectory of potential failure and definitely at the Kremlin’s mercy going forward,” Gabuev said.
“So far, Russians have seen a lot of bark from the American side but no bite,” he added. “Trump has not demonstrated ability or will to push Russia into peace negotiations and arrive to terms of peace acceptable to both the United States and Ukraine.”
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth meets at 4 p.m. with Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, deputy supreme commander and prime minister of Bahrain.
In an appearance with President Trump in the Oval Office yesterday, the crown prince said Bahrain had no plans to transfer any of its Patriot missiles to Ukraine, but praised American technology as “the best, bar none.”
“They’re wonderful pieces of kit,” he said.
Asked if it was time to begin negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, Salman replied, “Should the Iranians want to negotiate, I believe the ball’s in their court. That is the true reality of where we stand today. They are the ones that stand to benefit from a negotiation.”
“And they do. They want to negotiate,” Trump chimed in. “They want to negotiate badly. We’re in no rush because, you know, we said we could have made a deal. They should have made a deal, and then we bombed the hell out of their various places. We’re in no rush, but if they want to negotiate, we’re here.”
RUBIO SIGNS CIVIL NUCLEAR PACT WITH BAHRAIN AS TRUMP MEETS WITH CROWN PRINCE
HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth meets at 4 p.m. with Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, deputy supreme commander and prime minister of Bahrain.
In an appearance with President Trump in the Oval Office yesterday, the crown prince said Bahrain had no plans to transfer any of its Patriot missiles to Ukraine, but praised American technology as “the best, bar none.”
“They’re wonderful pieces of kit,” he said.
Asked if it was time to begin negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, Salman replied, “Should the Iranians want to negotiate, I believe the ball’s in their court. That is the true reality of where we stand today. They are the ones that stand to benefit from a negotiation.”
“And they do. They want to negotiate,” Trump chimed in. “They want to negotiate badly. We’re in no rush because, you know, we said we could have made a deal. They should have made a deal, and then we bombed the hell out of their various places. We’re in no rush, but if they want to negotiate, we’re here.”
RUBIO SIGNS CIVIL NUCLEAR PACT WITH BAHRAIN AS TRUMP MEETS WITH CROWN PRINCE
HOUSE VERSION OF NDAA ADVANCES: In a late-night vote, the House Armed Services Committee passed its version of the annual National Defense Authorization Act on a solid bipartisan vote of 55-2, despite some strong policy differences between the Republicans and Democrats. Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Sara Jacobs (D-CA) were the only no votes.
The House version, H.R. 3838, is technically titled “The Streamlining Procurement for Effective Execution and Delivery and National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026,” because it contains the bipartisan SPEED Act, aimed at streamlining the Pentagon’s cumbersome acquisition process to significantly reduce the time it takes to field new military capabilities.
“This bill is the product of hundreds of hours of oversight done by all members and staff over the past few months. It is a strong bill that will help reform acquisition systems, revitalize the defense industrial base, and build the ready, capable, and lethal fighting force we need to deter China and other adversaries,” said Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL). “Reforming our acquisition system and investing in enhanced capabilities is critical to deterring our adversaries.”
The legislation authorizes $848.2 billion for the military and adds $100 million for aid to Ukraine, bringing the total to $400 million. The Senate version of the NDAA, which was formally filed yesterday after passing in committee, has $500 million for Ukraine aid.
Ranking member Sen. Adam Smith (D-WA) proposed the Ukraine amendment, which was approved by a 48-9 margin. However, another of Smith’s amendments was defeated 27-30 on a straight party-line vote. It would have barred funding for any future effort by the United States to invade Canada, Greenland, or Panama.
Reps. Don Bacon (R-NE) and Derek Schmidt (R-KS) provided the key votes on an amendment that would reverse the Pentagon’s decision to strip eight Army bases of their new names and rename them for people with the same names as Confederate generals. The provision would restore the names selected by a bipartisan base renaming commission during the Biden administration.
Democrats failed to get Republican support for an amendment to bar the use of federal funds to overhaul and retrofit the Qatari Boeing 747 President Trump acquired as a “gift.”
During the marathon committee debate, which lasted 14 hours, Smith lamented the amount of money spent on funding ICE’s immigration law enforcement. “They’re also grabbing a lot of Department of Defense assets to use in that effort and undermining our ability to meet our national security needs,” he said, noting that Trump keeps boasting the border is already secure.
“I kind of agree with him,” Smith said. “I think he was the one who said we don’t need to change the law, we just need to change presidents, but apparently we need to change the law too if we’re going to throw another $170 billion.
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THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Yemeni military intercepts ‘massive’ shipment of Iranian weapons meant for Houthis
Washington Examiner: Twenty Palestinians killed in stampede near food distribution site, aid group says
Washington Examiner: Mike Huckabee stands by Netanyahu in corruption case
Washington Examiner: Netanyahu leading minority government after losing another ultra-Orthodox party
Washington Examiner: Understanding the enigmatic Druze community at the heart of Syrian unrest
Washington Examiner: Rubio signs civil nuclear pact with Bahrain as Trump meets with crown prince
Washington Examiner: Secret Service compliant with nearly half of congressional reform requests
Washington Examiner: Democrats stall immigration hearing with flurry of subpoena requests for Noem and Miller
Washington Examiner: FBI captures suspected shooter in ambush of ICE agents at Texas detention center
Washington Examiner: Why the Republican rescissions bill could force a Schumer shutdown
Washington Examiner: Opinion: State Department security agency splurges $200,000 on Sydney junket
Reuters: Exclusive: Putin, unfazed by Trump, will fight on and could take more of Ukraine
ABC News: Ukraine Braces for Trump’s 50-Day Window amid Escalating Russian Strikes
Reuters: Zelenskiy aims to woo both public and Trump with fresh-faced Ukraine cabinet
New York Times: Israel Strikes Syrian Capital, Sending Warning to Government
Wall Street Journal: This New Missile-Defense System Is Challenging the Patriot
Wall Street Journal: Through Trial and Error, Iran Found Gaps in Israel’s Storied Air Defenses
Air & Space Forces Magazine: House Panel Advances Draft 2026 NDAA Without Major Aircraft Adds
Breaking Defense: SASC Defense Policy Bill Adds Billions for Arleigh Burke Destroyer, Sentinel ICBM Programs
Defense One: Salt Typhoon Hacks into National Guard Systems a ‘Serious Escalation,’ Experts Warn
Task & Purpose: Hypersonics, AI, Drone Swarms: Pentagon Pours $179 Billion into R&D
Washington Post: Inside ‘Alligator Alcatraz,’ detainees report relentless mosquitoes, limited water
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Claims $10.4B in DOGE Savings, Most from Consultants and Contractors
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Bussiere, Bratton Tapped For Air Force and Space Force Vice Chief Roles
The War Zone: USAF Denies It Refueled Israel’s Fighters During War with Iran
DefenseScoop: Space Force Training for On-Orbit Warfare in Inaugural Resolute Space Exercise
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Defense Policy Nominee Has Advocated Merging NRO and Space System Command
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Lockheed Reveals Second Low-Cost Cruise Missile ‘Truck’ and Successful Flight Tests
Military.com: Incoming Ellsworth Commander Criticized Air Force Base’s Culture in B-1B Lancer Crash Report
THE CALENDAR:
THURSDAY | JULY 17
11 a.m. — Aspen Institute 2025 Security Forum through July 18 with Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; Navy Secretary John Phelan; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Emil Michael, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; and former White House national security adviser Stephen Hadley https://www.youtube.com/c/aspeninstitute
3 p.m. — Defennse Priorities virtual discussion: “A new war next door? The case against U.S. military strikes in Mexico,” with Aileen Teague, assistant professor, Texas A&M Bush School of Government and Public Service; Dan DePetris, fellow, Defense Priorities; Colin Clarke; director of research, The Soufan Group; and Jennifer Kavanagh; senior fellow and director of military analysis, Defense Priorities https://www.defensepriorities.org/events/a-new-war-next-door
4 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute book discussion: Butler: The Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump and the Fight for America Heartland, with author Salena Zito https://www.hudson.org/events/politics-loyalty-survival-conversation-salena-zito
7 p.m. 5015 Connecticut Ave. NW — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion: The Mission: The CIA in the 21st Century,” with author Tim Weiner https://politics-prose.com/tim-weiner
FRIDAY | JULY 18
11 a.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Institute 2025 Security Forum with U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack; and former CIA Director David Petraeus; Senate Intelligence ranking member Mark Warner (R-VA); Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE); former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson; former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; Australian Ambassador to the U.S. Kevin Rudd; former Defense Secretary Robert Gates; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; and former White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan https://www.youtube.com/c/aspeninstitute
TUESDAY | JULY 22
1 p.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group Zoom conversation with Lt. Gen. Joel “JB” Vowell, deputy commanding general, U.S. Army Pacific RVSP: Thom Shanker at [email protected]
WEDNESDAY | JULY 23
5 p.m. Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “The Future of U.S. Foreign Assistance,” with Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA); Lisa Curtis, CNAS senior fellow and program director for Indo-Pacific Security; and moderated by CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-the-future-of-u-s-foreign-assistance
THURSDAY | JULY 24
6:30 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army’ Coffee Series discussion: “Army $197.4 billion fiscal year 2026 budget request,” with Maj. Gen. Mark Bennett, director, Army budget https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/mg-bennett