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Sep 10, 2025  |  
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Zach Halaschak


NextImg:Population 4.5 million smaller over next decade: CBO

The Congressional Budget Office forecast that the U.S. population over the next decade will be 4.5 million people smaller than previously projected, in large part because of President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.

The nonpartisan congressional scorekeeper said in a demographic outlook update on Wednesday that there will be 4.5 million fewer people, a 1.2% decrease, in 2035 than it projected in January. That difference increases to 5.4 million fewer people by 2055, a 1.5% change from prior projections.

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“The population contains fewer people ages 25 to 54 — the age group that is most likely to participate in the labor force — than the agency previously projected,” the report reads.

The notable decreases are attributed in large part to predicted changes in net immigration in the coming years. Trump campaigned on and has implemented sweeping crackdowns of illegal immigration into the country, including deportations and beefed-up border security.

The CBO also notes that lower expected fertility rates have contributed to the lower projections. Also, deaths are projected to exceed births in 2031, which is two years earlier than the CBO predicted in January.

It is worth noting that the CBO projections are highly uncertain, particularly in the later years of its forecast. Changes in fertility, mortality, and immigration in the coming decades would affect the outlook.

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“For example, immigration could differ significantly from CBO’s projections because of future legislative or administrative changes, which are not incorporated into the current projections,” the report reads.

Since the January forecast, Republicans have also passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is now being rebranded as the working families tax cut plan at the White House’s direction. While the legislation primarily extended tax cuts and included new cuts, it also allocated resources to reduce immigration.