The post-World War Two trans-Atlantic defense consensus is fraying. The United States is becoming increasingly introverted and unaware or unconcerned over the growing threat to Europe’s security. The stumbling Biden administration, the prospect of a second Trump presidency, and the accelerated militarization of Russia have convinced a growing number of European leaders that they must prepare for war with Moscow. Especially if Ukraine suffers any major defeats this year.
Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Europe is entering a “prewar” era and the continent is not ready to defend itself. He is urging each country to significantly increase defense spending and arms manufacturing in preparation for an armed conflict with Russia. Spain has rejected his calls for readiness but French President Emmanuel Macron is becoming outspoken on the Russian threat. The calculation among NATO members bordering Russia is clear. Namely, that a U.S. withdrawal from European security without a clear Ukrainian victory would enable Russia’s armed forces to rebuild their capabilities and again threaten their neighbors.
Following his predecessor’s example, Tusk’s Poland is now leading with action.
In 2023, Warsaw increased its defense spending to 3.9% of GDP — the highest among all NATO members, even ahead of the U.S. at 3.49% — and is projected to surpass 4% this year. Warsaw is significantly boosting its military capabilities and aims to double the size of its armed forces to 300,000. NATO also has guidelines that at least 20% of annual defense expenditure should be allocated for purchasing military equipment.
Warsaw has allocated more than 50% of its defense spending on military modernization, placing Poland in first place in the alliance. Warsaw is buying large stocks of tanks, fighter jets, and air defense systems. Tusk understands the urgency of rectifying the insufficient capacity of Europe’s defense industry and responding to the uncertain future of American assistance.
The core of the problem is that the Biden administration lacks a credible strategy for dealing with a militarily aggressive Russia. It is stuck in a bygone area of accommodation with Russian imperialism and seems to fear Moscow’s “escalation” more than Ukraine. It fails to understand that without a comprehensive Russian military and economic defeat, any peace agreements with Moscow will be temporary.
Instead of encouraging a full-scale Ukrainian victory, the White House has denied Ukraine the long-range weapons needed to decimate Russia’s logistics and is even discouraging Kyiv from attacking Russia’s energy infrastructure that fuels its war. This either demonstrates profound ignorance of how to win a war or a deliberate ploy to prevent Russia from losing.
Officials in Warsaw and other front-line capitals are critical of Biden’s slow-motion approach to the Russian threat and express even more concerns about a potential Trump presidency. They fear that Trump could scale back the U.S. presence in Central Europe, surrender Ukrainian territory to Russia, and potentially pursue a grand security deal with Moscow over the heads of staunch U.S. allies such as Poland.
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In a worst-case scenario, even if the U.S. remained in NATO because of Congressional buffers against withdrawal, Trump could refuse to invoke Article Five to help defend a country militarily attacked by Russia. Moscow already feels emboldened by Trump’s pronouncements and is ramping up its military production and mobilization.
In urging Germany and other military under-spenders to emulate Poland, Tusk astutely noted that regardless of the outcome of the U.S. elections, Europe will emerge as a more attractive partner for Washington if it becomes more self-sufficient militarily. Nonetheless, the gap between Europe’s longer-term military potential and the more immediate threat from Russia is why Tusk and leaders of other eastern front states are warning of an approaching war.
Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player.