WHO WILL BLINK? The Pentagon has issued guidance that would furlough just over half of the Defense Department’s civilian workforce in the event of a government shutdown on Wednesday morning. While uniformed military personnel would continue to work without a paycheck, 406,573 workers of the 741,477 civilian workforce would be told to stay home, with their future employment in question.
As part of the brinkmanship over the deadlock on Capital Hill over passing a routine continuing resolution to keep the government funded, the White House raised the stakes last week with an Office of Management and Budget memo directing agencies, in the event of a shutdown, to permanently fire civilian workers whose positions are not funded by President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” or other sources, or whose jobs are “not consistent with the president’s priorities.”
“We are going to cut a lot of the people that, you know, we’re able to cut, if there is (a shutdown),” Trump told NBC News in a phone interview Sunday. “We’re able to cut on a permanent basis, and we will be doing that. I’d rather not do that.”
Minority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said he believed Trump is making an empty threat. “Simple, one-sentence answer: They’re doing it anyway. There’s no shutdown. They’re laying off all these people. The budget they’ve proposed says another 300,000 federal workers should be laid off,” Schumer said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “They laid off 80,000 in the Veterans Administration. They’re trying to intimidate the American people and us. But the bottom line is, if they fire all these people — first, the courts have brought a lot of them back because what they did was illegal, and second, there’s such pressure on them not to do it because of the harm it causes people, that they back off.”
WHITE HOUSE MEETING: After canceling plans for a meeting with congressional lawmakers last week, Trump has agreed to meet with both sides at the White House this afternoon. However, he’s given no indication he’s in the mood to negotiate with Democrats, who are demanding increased funding for healthcare.
“No meeting with their Congressional Leaders could possibly be productive,” Trump posted on Truth Social last week. “They are threatening to shut down the Government of the United States unless they can have over $1 Trillion Dollars in new spending to continue free healthcare for Illegal Aliens.”
“The purpose of the meeting is so that the president can assemble the four leaders, the two top leaders in both chambers, to come in and have this discussion,” said House Speaker Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) on Fox’s Sunday Morning Futures program. “I talked with him at length yesterday about this, and he’s going to tell Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries to stop playing political games.”
“The meeting is a first step, but only a first step. We need a serious negotiation,” Schumer said on NBC. “Now, if the president at this meeting is going to rant, and just yell at Democrats, and talk about all his alleged grievances, and say this, that, and the other thing, we won’t get anything done.”
“Totally up to the Democrats. The ball is in their court,” said Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-SD), who also appeared on Meet the Press. “There is a bill sitting at the desk in the Senate right now, we could pick it up today and pass it, that has been passed by the House that will be signed into law by the president to keep the government open.”
“What the Democrats have done here is take the federal government as a hostage, and for that matter, by extension, the American people, to try and get a whole laundry list of things that they want, the special interest groups on the far left are pushing them to accomplish, and using a seven-week funding resolution, which is designed to give us time to do the normal appropriations process,” said Thune.
“What they have proposed is a complete blank check to the president,” Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) said on CNN. “So, in addition to dealing with this healthcare issue and preventing these spikes, we also want to make sure that the president can’t just spend money on things that he wants and illegally withhold funds from areas he doesn’t.”
THUNE DISMISSES DEMOCRATS DEMAND TO REACH OBAMACARE SUBSIDIES DEAL BEFORE SHUTDOWN
MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE PENTAGON: The published guidance names six areas of highest priority, and says workers essential to those enterprises will be exempt from furloughs or layoffs.
- Operations to secure the U.S. Southern Border
- Middle East operations
- Golden Dome for America
- Depot Maintenance
- Shipbuilding
- Critical Munitions
“Component and subordinate leaders will closely evaluate individual activities to determine whether they are ‘excepted’ consistent with this planning guidance and continue or initiate them, as appropriate, when supported by the facts,” read the document. “Activities that are determined not to be excepted, and which cannot be performed by utilizing military personnel in place of furloughed civilian personnel, will be suspended when appropriated funds are no longer available.”
“The department will continue to defend the nation and conduct ongoing military operations,” the guidance noted. “It will continue activities funded with any available budgetary resources that have not lapsed … as well as excepted activities such as those necessary for the safety of human life and the protection of property.”
TRUMP MEETING WITH HOUSE AND SENATE LEADERS AHEAD OF GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Trump is expected to give a warm welcome to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House this morning, as he hopes to get Netanyahu to agree to his 21-point plan to end the war in Gaza and secure the release of the remaining hostages held by Hamas.
“We’re getting a very good response because Bibi wants to make the deal too,” Trump said in a telephone interview with Reuters. “Everybody wants to make the deal.”
Trump posted on his Truth Social account, “We have a real chance for GREATNESS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ALL ARE ON BOARD FOR SOMETHING SPECIAL, FIRST TIME EVER. WE WILL GET IT DONE!!!”
The meeting comes days after Netanyahu’s fiery U.N. speech in which he flatly rejected demands to end the war in Gaza. “We’re not done yet,” Netanyahu said. “The final elements, the final remnants of Hamas, are holed up in Gaza City. They vow to repeat the atrocities of October 7th again and again and again, no matter how diminished their forces. That is why Israel must finish the job. That is why we want to do so as fast as possible.”
Trump and Netanyahu are scheduled to meet in the Oval Office and then hold a joint press conference at 1:15 p.m.
NETANYAHU LAVISHES TRUMP WITH PRAISE AHEAD OF WHITE HOUSE VISIT
HAPPENING TOMORROW: Trump has told several news organizations he plans to speak tomorrow at War Secretary Pete Hegseth’s mysterious mandatory gathering of virtually all the U.S. officers with stars on their shoulders.
The hastily called meeting, to be held at the Marine Corps University at Quantico, was initially scheduled to last about an hour with Hegsteth addressing the senior officers, including top commanders from around the world, on his vision of “warrior ethos” and the priorities of the Trump administration.
However, with Trump in the mix, the event is likely to go much longer. In phone interviews, Trump pushed back on the speculation that military officers would be asked to commit to some kind of loyalty pledge.
“It’s really just a very nice meeting talking about how well we’re doing militarily, talking about being in great shape, talking about a lot of good, positive things. It’s just a good message,” Trump told NBC News. “We have some great people coming in, and it’s just an ‘esprit de corps.’ You know the expression ‘esprit de corps’? That’s all it’s about. We’re talking about what we’re doing, what they’re doing, and how we’re doing.”
“I want to tell the generals that we love them, they’re cherished leaders, to be strong, be tough and be smart and be compassionate,” Trump told Reuters in an interview. “That’s all that is, esprit de corps. It’s about time somebody did that.”
No explanation has been given for why the massive meeting needed to be in person, disrupting global operations and generating millions of dollars in costs one day before a potential government shutdown.
Democrats were quick to criticize the pep talk by Hegseth. “Our Generals and Admirals don’t need a lecture from a cable TV personality about the warrior ethos. They have committed their lives to developing the character and leadership essential to effectively lead our men and women in uniform,” Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA) posted on X. “Hegseth would do himself a favor by listening rather than lecturing.”
“For his own vanity, Pete Hegseth is pulling our military leaders away from their missions around the world — at great cost to American taxpayers and our national security,” Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) posted on X. “In every way, this abrupt, unprecedented meeting is too high a price. I’m demanding answers.”
TRUMP WILL SPEAK AT LARGE MEETING OF GENERALS CALLED BY HEGSETH: REPORT
200 GUARD TROOPS TO ‘WAR RAVAGED’ PORTLAND: Ignoring a recent federal court ruling that a similar deployment in Los Angeles was illegal, Secretary Hegseth — under orders from President Trump — has issued a memo to Adjutant General of the Oregon National Guard calling up 200 National Guard troops for deployment in Portland.
“I am directing Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to provide all necessary Troops to protect War ravaged Portland, and any of our ICE Facilities under siege from attack by Antifa, and other domestic terrorists,” Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday. “I am also authorizing Full Force, if necessary.”
“I will not be approving utilization of the Oregon National Guard,” Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek said in response. “The President does not have the authority to deploy federal troops on state soil.”
“There is no insurrection. There is no threat to national security, and there is no need for federal troops,” who hinted that the state would seek legal remedies.
In a ruling earlier this month, Judge Charles Breyer of the Federal District Court in San Francisco found that Trump and Hegseth violated the Posse Comitatus Act, by deploying federalized troops when “there was no rebellion, nor was civilian law enforcement unable to respond to the protests and enforce the law.”
TRUMP ORDERS HEGSETH TO DEPLOY TROOPS TO PORTLAND
RUSSIA AND UKRAINE TRADE BLOWS: Russia launched yet another massive drone and missile attack on civilian targets, while Ukraine struck back, hitting a Russian thermal power plant in Belgorod, just across the northeast border, knocking out water and power.
“Our long-range strikes have brought us good results. Ukraine is defending itself rightfully,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted on X, amid local reports that U.S.-supplied GMLRS guided rockets and missiles were used to disable the plant.
Zelensky said the Russian strikes, one of the heaviest of the war, injured more than 80 people and killed four, including medical personnel and a child. “A massive Russian attack on Ukraine lasted for more than 12 hours. Savage strikes, a deliberate, targeted terror against ordinary cities — nearly 500 attack drones and over 40 missiles, including Kinzhal missiles,” he posted on X.
In an interview on Fox News, U.S. Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg indicated that Trump had given Ukraine the green light to strike anywhere in Russia, when asked specifically whether Trump had approved long-range strikes.
“The answer is yes, use the ability to hit deep, there are no such things as sanctuaries,” Kellogg replied. Zelensky has asked the U.S. for Tomahawk cruise missiles, but Kellogg said a decision on that has not been made.
TRUMP REPORTEDLY CONSIDERING LIFTING RESTRICTIONS ON UKRAINE USE OF US-MADE WEAPONS
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Trump meeting with House and Senate leaders ahead of government shutdown
Washington Examiner: Thune dismisses Democrats demand to reach Obamacare subsidies deal before shutdown
Washington Examiner: Netanyahu lavishes Trump with praise ahead of White House visit
Washington Examiner: Netanyahu tells UN: Palestinian statehood sends message ‘murdering Jews pays off’
Washington Examiner: France officially recognizes Palestinian state in opening of UN General Assembly
Washington Examiner: Trump reportedly considering lifting restrictions on Ukraine use of US-made weapons
Washington Examiner: World is ‘living through the most destructive arms race’: Zelensky
Washington Examiner: Kremlin insists US-led path to peace remains, but Russia is not a ‘paper tiger’
Washington Examiner: Trump will speak at large meeting of generals called by Hegseth: Report
Washington Examiner: Hegseth orders rare meeting with hundreds of senior military officials
Washington Examiner: Wounded Knee Medals of Honor announcement sparks frustration
Washington Examiner: Department of War’s DOGE efforts don’t reduce expected spending, reallocate funding
Washington Examiner: First F-47 sixth-generation aircraft expected to fly in 2028, Allvin announces
Washington Examiner: US foreign aid will reorient to Ukraine defense, competing with China, as USAID dissolves
Washington Examiner: Germany sounds the alarm on Russia’s space behavior: ‘It is a threat that we can no longer ignore’
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Hamas suffered losses but gained global support for its cause
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: Three specific reasons to stop comparing ICE to the Gestapo
NBC News: Trump says he’ll attend Pete Hegseth’s gathering of generals to tell them ‘how well we’re doing militarily’
Reuters: Trump says he will tell US military leaders “we love them”
AP: Ukraine nuclear plant enters fifth day on emergency power as Zelenskyy announces $90B arms deal
AP: Russia Is Helping China to Prepare for a Potential Invasion of Taiwan, Defense Institute Says
Air Force Times: China Remains No 1 Threat in Space: Space Force General
Axios: Trump Says Gaza Peace Deal in ‘Final Stages’
AP: Oregon leaders say Trump is deploying 200 National Guard troops within the state
Washington Post: Four Dead as Massive Russian Attack Hits Kyiv, Other Ukrainian Cities
Wall Street Journal: US Military Is Struggling to Deploy AI Weapons
Reuters: Moldova’s pro-EU ruling party wins majority in pivotal vote
Reuters: Iran executes ‘one of most important spies’ for Israel
The War Zone: Angry Tortoise Liquid-Fueled Hypersonic Missile in Development for USAF
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Contemplating B-21-Like Aircraft for Air-to-Air Combat
Breaking Defense: Wilsbach Expected to Become Next Air Force Chief of Staff: Sources
DefenseScoop: Space Force Leaders in Europe, Africa Move to Enhance Allies’ Access to Commercial Tech
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Industry Experts: Test Your Long Range Kill Chains to the Point of Failure
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Big Changes to Air Force Basic Training: The Details Future Airmen Need to Know
CBS News: George Hardy, One of the Last Original Tuskegee Airmen, Dies at 100 ‘A True American Hero’
THE CALENDAR:
MONDAY | SEPTEMBER 29
8:50 a.m. 11810 Sunrise Valley Dr., Reston, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement 2025 Defense Logistics and Support Summit, with Lt. Gen. Mark Simerly, director, Defense Logistics Agency; and Rear Adm. Philip Sobeck, commander, Military Sealift Command https://www.idga.org/events-defense-logistics/agenda-mc
9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. virtual discussion: “Strategic Recalibrations: Central European Approaches to China and the Indo-Pacific,” with Linas Didvalis, associate professor, Vytautas Magnus University; Tamas Matura, associate professor, Corvinus University of Budapest; Julia Pallanch, senior program coordinator, GMF Indo-Pacific program; and Zuzana Krulichova, GMF fellow https://www.gmfus.org/event/strategic-recalibrations-central-european-approaches
3:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry L. Stimson Center event: “In Pursuit of Peace: The Life and Legacy of Barry Blechman,” with former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, director, Stanford University’s Hoover Institution (via video); former Assistant Navy Secretary Russell Rumbaugh, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; Ellen Laipson, director, George Mason University International Security Program; and Melanie Sisson, Brookings Institution senior fellow https://www.stimson.org/event/in-pursuit-of-peace
2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Europe and Regional Security Cooperation Subcommittee hearing on “The Future of U.S. Black Sea Strategy,” with testimony from Matthew Boyse, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute Center on Europe and Eurasia; and S. Frederick Starr, fellow for Eurasia at the American Foreign Policy Council and founding chairman of the Central Asia Caucasus Institute http://foreign.senate.gov
3 p.m. — U.S. Senate meets at 3 p.m. to resume consideration of S.2296, the “National Defense Authorization Act for FY2026.” http://www.senate.gov
TUESDAY | SEPTEMBER 30
2:45 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — Atlantic Council Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics: “A New Anchor for the U.S.-European Partnership,” Maros Sefcovic, commissioner for trade and economic security at the European Commission; U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker; Tomas Pojar, national security adviser for the Czech Republic; and Valdis Dombrovskis, commissioner for economy and productivity at the European Union https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/2025-transatlantic-forum-on-geoeconomics/
8 a.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security “Defense Writers Group breakfast discussion:” with Lt. Gen. Christopher Mohan, deputy commanding general, Army Materiel Command and senior commander, Redstone Arsenal RSVP: [email protected].
9:15 a.m. 11810 Sunrise Valley Dr., Reston, Virginia — Institute for Defense and Government Advancement 2025 Defense Logistics and Support Summit, with Katie Arrington, performing the duties of department of defense chief information officer https://www.idga.org/events-defense-logistics/agenda-mc
10 a.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Ukraine’s drone industry and the challenge of wartime supply chains,” with former Deputy Assistant Defense Secretary for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia Laura Cooper, instructor at the National War College; Catarina Buchatskiy, director, analytics at the Snake Island Institute; Daniel Soller, vice president of international operations at Mission Essential; and Mykola Holovatiuk, commander, Ukraine’s 412th Nemesis Regiment’s Drone Pilot Section https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/ukraines-drone-industry
1 p.m. — Jews United for Democracy and Justice virtual discussion: “30 Years Since Oslo: Why Did the Accords Fail and Can the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process be Salvaged?” with former Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert; and Nasser Al-Kidwa, member, Palestinian political party Fatah https://www.jewsunitedfordemocracy.org/blog/event/september-30-30-years-since
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 1
9 a.m. — International Institute for Strategic Studies virtual discussion: “Tracking the Components of Missiles and UAVs Used by Russia in Ukraine: What Lessons for Control Regimes?” with David Hayes, director, David Hayes Export Controls; and Rob Hunter-Perkins, head of research, Conflict Armament Research https://www.iiss.org/events/2025/09/report-launch-tracking-the-components-of-missiles
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 2
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club 2025 Intel Summit discussion, “Acceleration of Commercial Technology into National Intelligence Missions,” with Timothy Wood, program manager for the machine-assisted analytic rapid-repository system at the Defense Intelligence Agency, https://www.potomacofficersclub.com/events/2025-intel-summit
12 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University discussion: “From Russia with Love: Transnational Corruption and Sanctions Bypass in the Ukraine War,” with Alyona Vandysheva, CEO, Transparency International Russia (in exile); Ilia Shumanov, compliance specialist, anti-corruption expert and former CEO of Transparency International Russia https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/from-russia-with-love
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 4
9 a.m. 1957 E St. NW — Program on New Approaches to Research and Security in Eurasia Annual Policy Conference discussion: “Russia’s War in Ukraine” https://www.ponarseurasia.org/ponars-eurasia-annual-policy-conference
10 a.m. — National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar: “European Perspectives on China and its Nuclear Buildup,” with Max Hoell, postdoctoral research fellow at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/european-perspectives-on-china