Former Vice President Mike Pence is seeking the 2024 Republican presidential nomination under former President Donald Trump's shadow.
Pence's decision, long anticipated, pits the two men against one another again after Jan. 6 amid Trump's continued dominance in the Republican primary. But the former vice president's other problem is he is tied to Trump despite his best attempts to distance himself from his onetime boss on style and substance.
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Pence's campaign needle is "not threadable" because Trump supporters perceive him as a "traitor" and "sell out" for certifying the 2020 Electoral College results, regardless of their shared record, according to political and media historian Brian Rosenwald.
"Realistically, he’s in a weird spot because his whole political ideology is out of vogue within the GOP," Rosenwald, a University of Pennsylvania fellow, told the Washington Examiner. "His hardcore social conservatism has already proved damaging for the party, his internationalism and free trade ideology is the antithesis of Trumpism, etc. It’s hard to see what lane there is for him."
There is a primary constituency for a Republican who can embody Trump’s policies without the "drama," per Middlebury College politics professor Bertram Johnson.
"Another paradox is that being ‘low drama’ makes it more difficult to command media attention, which is important in primary contests — especially with ‘high drama’ rivals like Trump and [Gov. Ron] DeSantis [R-FL]," Johnson said. "I’m skeptical that Pence can succeed in walking this tightrope."
Pence aides are more optimistic. One downplayed criticism of Pence from Trump supporters over Jan. 6, citing only two negative "interactions" out of "hundreds and hundreds of press events."
The same aide previewed how Pence will draw "distinctions between himself and the rest of the field," though the source dismissed the idea Nikki Haley is his most direct competition as the former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor also pitches herself as a traditional conservative and experienced executive. Instead, the Pence aide contends the former vice president is "looking up." Meanwhile, Haley is trying to undermine DeSantis. Trump, too, is focused on DeSantis.
"There are going to be candidates who are going to fight for that 25% or whatever that Trump commands, and they're going to risk alienating the remaining 75%," the Pence aide said. "We can focus on the 75% and talking about a vision forward for the nation and what Pence would do, right? Instead of looking backwards, we're going to be casting a vision forward. We think that's what voters want."
On average, Pence has 4% support, according to RealClearPolitics's aggregation of very early primary polls. That is roughly the same percentage as Haley. But the pair trail Trump by 49 points and DeSantis by 18 points.
Pence, a dependable vice president to a president who placed a premium on loyalty, started becoming more assertive against Trump this spring during the white-tie, no-cameras Gridiron Dinner hosted by reporters in Washington, D.C.
“President Trump was wrong," he said at the time. "I had no right to overturn the election, and his reckless words endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day, and I know that history will hold Donald Trump accountable."
Besides Russia's war in Ukraine and abortion, Pence has additionally differentiated himself from Trump by criticizing the former president's penchant for federal spending.
"We could have done a better job controlling spending under our administration," he told NBC last month. "We could have taken on entitlement reform during our administration, and the truth of the matter is, entitlements today represent 70% of the federal budget. And left unchecked, the national debt that we have today will increase fivefold by the time my newborn granddaughters are age 30. And I think we could have done a better job in that space."
Pence's announcement video, rally in Ankeny, Iowa, and CNN town hall in Des Moines, Iowa, on Wednesday, followed by other stops in the Hawkeye State on Thursday, precedes trips to New Hampshire on Friday and North Carolina on Saturday.
Pence was in Iowa last weekend to participate in Sen. Joni Ernst's (R-IA) "Roast and Ride" fundraiser for veterans. Aides underscored how the former vice president was the only then-undeclared presidential candidate who "actually" rode a motorcycle. Iowa is critical to Pence's campaign considering the state's evangelical community and the former vice president's own faith and Midwestern values.
“It is great to be back at the roast and ride — I rode and I roasted on the ride," he quipped.
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Pence scrutinized Trump as well for congratulating North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on the hermit kingdom's election to the World Heath Organization's executive board.
"Whether it's my former running mate or anyone else, no one should be praising the dictator in North Korea or praising the leader of Russia, who has launched an unprovoked war of aggression in Ukraine," he told Fox News.