A once-in-a-generation game of political musical chairs has kicked off in Iowa with the retirements of Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Gov. Kim Reynolds, two retirements jolting Iowa politics.

Within hours after Ernst announced her retirement on Tuesday, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-IA) jumped into the Senate race, immediately positioning herself as the GOP front-runner to succeed the Iowa senator. The announcement came just days after another shock to Iowa’s political order: Democrat Catelin Drey’s stunning special election win, which broke the GOP’s supermajority in the state Senate. The upset in a district long considered safe for Republicans has given Democrats a rare reason for optimism and a new pitch to national donors that Iowa deserves another look.

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Ernst, who made history as the first woman Iowa sent to Congress and the first female combat veteran to serve in the Senate, said she wanted to spend more time with her family.  Republican strategist David Oman, who served as her finance chair in 2014, said her departure wasn’t a shock after months of speculation but still marks a major moment for Iowa politics.

One of Ernst’s most defining moments came at a May town hall in Parkersburg, where she defended $700 billion in proposed Medicaid cuts and, when pressed, replied bluntly: “We all are going to die.” Democrats seized on the remark as dismissive of vulnerable Iowans, rolling out digital ads that replayed the clip to highlight the stakes of the GOP’s sweeping tax and immigration bill.

Oman acknowledged the controversy would have been a campaign challenge, but argued it wasn’t the driving force behind Ernst’s decision. “Obviously, it was an element; it would have been something to deal with in the campaign,” he said. “But my sense is she made this decision with larger issues in mind.” 

Democrats, though, contend the episode damaged her standing. “She made no effort to clean that up,” said Iowa state Sen. Tony Bisignano (D), predicting that the fallout helped accelerate her exit. 

Hinson quickly sought to fill the vacuum, launching her Senate campaign with a promise to be Donald Trump’s “strongest ally” in the chamber. Strategists say her entry instantly reshaped the race. “Everything that I hear from Republicans across the state is — she is absolutely top of the list,” said Iowa GOP consultant Tyler Campbell, citing her energy, fundraising strength, and conservative record. Oman called her a “formidable candidate,” and her name recognition as a former Cedar Rapids television anchor gives her an edge statewide.

But Hinson is unlikely to clear the field. Former state Sen. Jim Carlin, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Chuck Grassley in a 2022 primary, has already entered the race, along with Joshua Smith, a onetime Libertarian now running as a Republican. And according to NBC News, NATO Ambassador Matt Whitaker is also weighing a bid.

Iowa Republicans are no strangers to bruising primaries, and insiders caution against assuming a coronation. “The party may have a primary, we seem to do that all the time now,” Oman said, though he predicted Hinson would “sail” through. 

Democrats, meanwhile, sense a rare opening in a state that has trended red in recent years. The Cook Political Report shifted the race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican” within minutes of Ernst’s announcement. Several Democrats are already testing the waters, including state Sen. Zach Wahls; Jackie Norris, chairwoman of the Des Moines School Board and former chief of staff to Michelle Obama; state Rep. Josh Turek, a former Paralympian with two gold medals in wheelchair basketball; and Nathan Sage, an Iraq War veteran and head of the Knoxville Chamber of Commerce. Former congressional candidate J.D. Scholten recently dropped out to back Turek.

Bisignano, who has endorsed Norris, argued she has the experience and profile to mount the strongest challenge. “She’s got experience, she’s known, she’s got character. She’s a bright woman, and I think Jackie Norris is a great candidate to put against Hinson,” he said. 

Yet Democrats still face structural disadvantages. After the Democratic National Committee stripped Iowa of its first-in-the-nation caucus status, the state lost national clout, fundraising attention, and organizing energy. “What the DNC did is killing us, we’re flat, we’re dead,” Bisignano said. Still, he argued that Ernst’s retirement, an open governor’s race, and recent special election wins could put Iowa back on the map.  

Even so, Republicans remain favored. They enjoy a voter registration advantage of about 180,000, a number Bisignano conceded is daunting. “Rural Iowa still is a catastrophe for Democrats,” he said. GOP strategists counter that the state’s rightward trend gives them confidence, even as they warn against complacency. “None of them are taking 2026 lightly,” Campbell said. “But there is tremendous confidence throughout the Republican camps.” 

The shakeup extends beyond the Senate contest. Reynolds’s departure, which was announced earlier this year, sets up another high-stakes governor’s race, likely to draw a crowded GOP primary and give Democrats their first real shot at the governor’s mansion in nearly two decades. 

“It’s fairly unprecedented in modern political times here in Iowa,” Campbell said, calling it “a big opportunity for the next group of leaders in the party to really step up and make their imprint.”

Oman noted that the last time Iowa saw both an open Senate and governor’s race in the same year was 1968, when Democrat Harold Hughes moved from the statehouse to the Senate, and Republican Robert Ray succeeded him as governor. 

Both parties are recalibrating their expectations heading into 2026. Special elections are often unpredictable, but strategists say a string of Democratic wins could reshape the playing field. “We’ve shown that we can start winning again, and that may help us sign up some better candidates,” Oman said.

ASHLEY HINSON JUMPS INTO OPEN IOWA SENATE RACE TO REPLACE ERNST

Whether Democrats can turn that momentum into lasting gains will depend on whether national leaders invest in a state the party has largely written off. Republicans, meanwhile, see the simultaneous openings as a chance to extend their dominance. Both sides agree that Iowa, long overlooked in national politics, is suddenly back in the spotlight. As Oman said, “it’ll be a fun state” in 2026.