


As we approach the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine , two things can be true at once.
First, led by the National Security Council , the U.S. response to the conflict has tolerated hand-wringing over fears of escalation with Russia. The United States has ultimately done the right thing in providing Ukraine with the weapons systems it needs, albeit with delays. Armchair quarterbacks in Washington way overthink this challenge. For those of us who have actually worked with foreign partners, delay and equivocation are maddening. Imagine trying to describe this silliness to your Ukrainian counterparts as their families and friends are being killed.
GRAHAM SAYS CHINA WOULD BE 'DUMBER THAN DIRT' TO PROVIDE AID TO RUSSIAMorality should be a top-line concern. Waiting for each Russian atrocity before then doing the right thing by Ukraine seems to solve our worry about Russian escalation. But it also comes at a staggering cost to Ukrainian lives. Let’s also not forget that with what amounts to approximately 5% of the U.S. defense budget, we have helped Ukraine annihilate 50% of the Russian military. This is a proxy war. Russia is our enemy, and it is being badly defeated. This is not just charity for Ukraine, it is an investment for the U.S. We should say so openly.
Second, U.S. support for Ukraine has been a staggering success. U.S. leadership in Ukraine's support will likely be regarded by historians as President Joe Biden’s finest moment. Biden may not get reelected. Yet his record on Ukraine is clear. Not only did Biden help save Ukraine and concurrently save Europe from an aggressive and nakedly expansionist Russia, but he also may have rescued the NATO alliance from implosion. Biden has reminded world powers that U.S. leadership is indispensable and that alliances with America are priceless. There is no better example than Biden's visit to Kyiv this week.
What comes next?
Well, CIA Director Bill Burns's recent trip to Kyiv was quite telling. It reflects the seriousness of the coming fighting season as both sides gear up for renewed action. Burns presumably wanted to provide new intelligence to the Ukrainians as well as an expression of Washington’s continued resolve. Via his travels, successful tenure at the CIA, and the respect he has earned from both parties on Capitol Hill, Burns must be regarded as a possible future secretary of state.
Moreover, the U.S. intelligence community's role in this war is likely to be remembered as a massive success story. The U.S. intelligence community appears to have obtained the when, where, and how of the Russian invasion. It is trusted by Ukrainians by virtue of having stood with them since 2014. You don’t just turn on these relationships. The plumbing was put in place long before Feb. 24, 2022. Investing in bilateral intelligence relationships is part of a "Defend Forward" strategy I have always advocated .
Imagine if Donald Trump had won the presidency in 2020.
In that scenario, I have no doubt that Ukraine would now be a part of Russia. Europe would be divided and in chaos, threatened by an aggressive Vladimir Putin. It would likely have appeased Putin in the absence of American consolidation. In turn, it is far from outlandish to assert that Biden's election may have saved Ukraine and, by definition, saved the trans-Atlantic alliance. Republicans may dislike Biden's domestic policy agenda, but they would be hard-pressed to argue that a second Trump term would have been good for Ukraine or America's position in the world. This matters because even now, support for Ukraine is flagging within some elements, though not the majority, of the GOP. I have asked several former and current U.S. officials what their greatest worry is in terms of Ukraine possibly not prevailing in this conflict. Their unanimous answer: "Capitol Hill."
Let's just hope that the public can find confidence in what the U.S. has already done for Ukraine. It's something to be very proud of.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM RESTORING AMERICAMarc Polymeropoulos is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. A former CIA senior operations officer, he retired in 2019 after a 26-year career serving in the Near East and South Asia. His book, Clarity in Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the CIA, was published in June 2021 by Harper Collins.