The plunge in oil prices to four-year lows has seeded doubt as to whether the oil and gas industry will be able to deliver more drilling, as President Donald Trump has sought.

Just after 11 a.m., both domestic and international benchmarks were trading below the $60 per barrel line, with prices reaching their lowest levels since 2021. Brent Crude dipped by 5.36% and was trading at around $59.45 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate also dropped by 5.71% and was priced at $56.18 per barrel.

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Prices have been on a steep decline since April 2, when Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries. These tariffs include a baseline 10% tariff on all exports to the United States, with minimal exceptions, and higher tariffs on countries that have large trade surpluses with the U.S.

Other nations have since vowed to retaliate, including China, which plans to impose an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. goods starting Thursday.

Before the tariffs were introduced, both Brent Crude and WTI were trading above $70 per barrel.

The dramatic oil selloff, also fueled by OPEC+’s decision to accelerate its planned output hike next month, does fulfill Trump’s campaign promise to lower energy prices for consumers. Simultaneously, though, it threatens his other vow to “Drill, Baby, Drill.”

For weeks, industry executives and analysts have estimated that oil prices will need to remain at or above $65 per barrel for producers to profitably pursue new drilling. Last month, energy mogul and shale billionaire Harold Hamm suggested domestic drillers will need prices to be as high as $80 a barrel to fully cover the costs of increased production.

Any lower than that, oil drillers and developers are expected to feel negative effects — including a decline in oil production.

This week, S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated that if WTI hits $50 a barrel, crude oil production in the contiguous states could drop by more than 1 million barrels per day over a year.

“Depending on where you are in Texas or anywhere else in the U.S., there’s a certain dollar amount for crude oil that incentivizes drill,” Karr Ingham, president of the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers and petroleum economist, told the Washington Examiner. “And if you fall below that, then drilling and exploration activity is disincentivized.”

Ingham warned that if prices stay low and tariffs on critical products such as steel remain in place for a sustained period of time, the industry could see lower levels of activity and lower revenue.

As a result, producers may have to take on price-cutting measures, such as layoffs.

“I’m not suggesting that’s where we are right now,” Ingham said. “But if this ends up being a sustained period of lower pricing by, you know, $15 a barrel or more, then we certainly could see that.”

He said there is still hope the oil selloff is a “temporary phenomenon” that would allow the markets to swiftly bounce back. Steel tariffs, though, continue to strain the industry.

“Obviously, we’re witnessing right now price increases at the same time prices for crude oil are falling, so both of those are going in the wrong direction if you’re an oil or gas company,” Ingham said.

Fears are building within the industry over these possible lasting effects.

On Sunday, Kaes Van’t Hof, president of Diamondback Energy, the largest independent oil producer in the Permian Basin, took to social media to say the Trump administration “better have a plan.”

In a separate post, Van’t Hof insisted that the industry would “be fine, but this last week will hurt a lot of people in this industry for a long time.”

Oil and gas investor Bryan Sheffield has also reportedly begun to urge producers to slash drilling until the fallout of the growing tariff war settles, telling Bloomberg News that the industry needs to “hunker down.”

Much of the industry has been noticeably silent while oil prices have continued to drop over the last few days. And many of those who have made public remarks have hesitated to detail their concerns.

Tim Jorden, CEO of Coterra Energy, one of the largest domestic oil and gas producers, told the New York Times this week that he did not have an opinion to share on Trump’s tariffs.

“I understand that the president is choosing to do difficult things first,” Jorden said.

Texas-based oil and gas executive Michael Oestmann told the outlet that he hopes the market will bounce back, saying those who voted for the president knew this would happen.

“You have to let it play out and see how it goes for a few weeks here at least,” Oestmann told the New York Times.

American Petroleum Institute spokeswoman Bethany Williams told the Washington Examiner, “Like every sector of the economy, we are monitoring global markets closely. We will continue to engage the administration and our partners around the world on trade policies that support American energy dominance.”

Privately, though, leaders within the exploration and production sector have been more willing not to mince their words.

In a response to a Dallas Fed survey released in March, many executives echoed the growing sentiment that the industry cannot support $50 oil prices.

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“‘Drill, baby, drill’ does not work with $50 per barrel oil,” one respondent said, adding that the low prices will result in some rigs being dropped, jobs being lost, and production dropping to levels seen during the coronavirus pandemic.

“There cannot be ‘U.S. energy dominance’ and $50 per barrel oil; those two statements are contradictory,” another executive said “At $50-per-barrel oil, we will see U.S. oil production start to decline immediately and likely significantly (1 million barrels per day plus within a couple quarters). This is not ‘energy dominance.’”