President Donald Trump has been a vocal advocate of “drill, baby, drill,” but a number of top oil executives are doubtful that they will be able to increase production in the coming months, in large part thanks to the president’s own policies. 

Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to increase domestic oil and gas production and lower crude prices to as little as $50 per barrel. Prices have dropped to the mid and low $60s, though when combined with Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum imports imposed earlier this year, producers have found themselves in a bind. 

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Many oil and gas exploration and production firms are now saying they expect to drill fewer wells throughout 2025 than they had originally planned at the start of this year, according to a quarterly survey among executives conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 

The survey, released on Wednesday, found that 26% of executives believe the number of wells they will drill this year will “decrease significantly,” while 21% said it would “decrease slightly.”

A majority of executives surveyed also noted that if domestic crude benchmark prices stay at around $60 per barrel over the next 12 months, their oil production levels would drop slightly. 

If prices were to drop to $50 per barrel, the administration’s goal, and remain there until June 2026, 46% of executives said their production levels would decrease significantly. 

Producers’ hesitance to drill more can be explained by a number of factors, including unpredictable tensions in the Middle East, as some still fear Iran could limit access to the Strait of Hormuz. 

Though the president, who has championed himself as an ally to the fossil fuel industries, and his policies seem to be more to blame. 

In anonymous comments submitted along with the survey, numerous executives pointed specifically to Trump’s steel tariffs and the administration’s repeated insistence on dropping prices as a hindrance to the market. 

“Tariffs are increasing our product costs,” one oil and gas support services executive said. “Despite efforts to mitigate their impact, the scale and breadth of the tariffs have forced us to pass these costs on to our customers.”

“There is constant noise coming from the administration saying, ‘$50-per-barrel oil is the target.’ Everyone should understand that $50 is not a sustainable price for oil. It needs to be mid $60s,” another executive said, as a third emphasized there is too much “uncertainty” in the market to see growth. 

Executives are now predicting that West Texas Intermediate prices will sit at around $68 toward the end of this year and next. They don’t expect prices to fall any further, instead foreseeing a jump to $72 per barrel after two years and $77 per barrel after five. 

This warning from producers that new drilling would not be sustainable under current market conditions echoes similar concerns made in March. 

In the quarterly Dallas Fed survey released at the time, oil and gas executives also said the industry cannot support $50 prices as the combination of high steel tariffs and low prices could result in more rigs being dropped and jobs lost. 

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For many, the United States cannot achieve “energy dominance,” as promised by the administration, while also seeing oil at $50 per barrel. 

“The ‘Liberation Day’ chaos and tariff antics have harmed the domestic energy industry. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ will not happen with this level of volatility,” one exploration and production firm executive said this week. “Companies will continue to lay down rigs and frack spreads.”