Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan is neck and neck with Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) in the Ohio Senate race, but he trails in the primary, according to a new poll that showed the other candidates trailing Brown by more in a hypothetical matchup.
The poll released on Thursday and conducted by the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research conducted surveys testing each announced and expected Republican candidate in the Ohio Senate race against Brown, the incumbent Democrat. The center polled 805 registered voters in Ohio with a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
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In the survey, Dolan fared the best, polling at 44% to Brown’s 45%, with 4% saying they would vote for someone else and 7% undecided.
The next best matchup showed Ohio’s Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who has not yet announced but is widely expected to, polling at 42% to Brown’s 44%, with 4% saying another candidate and 11% being undecided.
Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno fared the worst against Brown. Moreno came in at 42%, with Brown at 46%, 2% saying they would prefer another candidate, and 11% undecided.
The same poll surveyed the Republican primary for the Senate seat and showed LaRose with a slim margin of error lead over Dolan at 17% to 14% and Moreno in a distant third at 7%. But 58% still remain undecided as to who they will support in the race.
“I think LaRose and Dolan are established among the base and the two most likely candidates, their support numbers are just gonna go along, and the undecideds will start fading away,” said Jonathan Morris, the senior polling scientist for the ECU Center for Survey Research.
The primary poll is the second poll that showed LaRose leading. Earlier in June, a LaRose-aligned group released a poll showing him with a lead over Dolan and Moreno as well.
All three candidates have run statewide in the past, but LaRose is the only one who has successfully won a statewide seat. Both Dolan and Moreno ran for the Senate seat in 2022, Moreno dropped out after having a conversation with former President Donald Trump, and Dolan came in third in the primary. While LaRose has yet to announce he is running, it is widely expected that he will soon get into the race.
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This seat has been identified by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as one Senate Republicans can flip in 2024.
According to Federal Election Commission records, as of April, Dolan has $3.3 million on hand, and $3 million of that is what he loaned his campaign. Dolan has not yet had to file an FEC report for this election, and LaRose has yet to announce.