2023 may not have the fireworks of the 2024 elections, but there is still plenty up for grabs. in this "off-year", most of which takes place on November 7. Virginia will be keenly watched, particularly by followers of Gov. Glenn Youngkin, and whether he can springboard Republican success into national aspirations. Meanwhile the governor's mansion is up for grabs in Kentucky and Mississippi. New Jersey's Republicans believe they have a real shot at turn the state red in legislative elections, while there are also fierce mayoral and district attorney battles throughout the United States. There are also several fascination referendums, particularly in Ohio, Maine and Texas. This Washington Examiner series, Forgotten Elections, will dive into all of these and more over the following two weeks. Part 15 will deal with the statewide elections in New Jersey and whether Republicans can flip either of the legislative chambers.
The traditionally blue-voting state of New Jersey is the home to a fierce political battle in 2023's statewide legislative elections, where Republicans are looking to pick up several Democratic held seats in the state Senate and General Assembly.
While the prospect of flipping one or both of the state's legislative chambers is considered within reach, it will be an uphill battle for both Republican incumbents and those in competitive districts with potential pick-up opportunities on Election Day Tuesday. Several factors will play into the off-year legislative elections.
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In an interview with the Washington Examiner, New Jersey Republican Party Chairman Bob Hugin said, "The tone in the electorate is very positive for Republicans." He explained that President Joe "Biden has been a big advantage to us — that he's underwater, even in New Jersey. He is very poorly viewed as being a candidate." In polling this year in New Jersey, 41% approved of Biden, while 52% disapproved. This was a decline since polling in 2022, particularly being driven by changing views among independents.
"Then the Bob Menendez thing comes out," Hugin said, referring to the indicted New Jersey senator. "Now they have pictures of him with $100 bills stuck in his pockets and gold bullion bars and people in Halloween costumes wearing a Democratic United States senator with a jacket with Monopoly money stapled to the pockets and gold bullion bars hanging around their neck as Halloween costumes."
According to Hugin, "It's a tough race, but we're looking very positive." He claimed the party is looking at "a number of big pick-up opportunities," specifically pointing out legislative district 11.
However, New Jersey Democratic State Committee Chairman LeRoy J. Jones Jr. is also confident in his party. "I think at the end of the day, you'll see us triumphing in all those legislative districts," he told the Washington Examiner in an interview.
"I'm always going to be cautiously concerned about everything because that's just the kind of person that I am," he added. "But I think they have not been as dominant as we are" in voting early and voting by mail. Jones also noted there are a few Democratic pickup opportunities as well, where Republicans will need to fend off challengers, specifying a matchup in legislative district three.
Adam Geller, a Republican pollster based in New Jersey, explained, "We're a Democratic state." But, he added, "We're not necessarily as liberal as some might think, given our vote history." He conceded, "there are progressive pockets. But as a whole, I wouldn't call it a progressive state."
There are a number of competitive matchups in New Jersey. Some of the most heated races are those taking place in Districts 3, 4, and 11.
District 3
The third legislative district is in the southwestern area of the state and is home to all of Salem County as well as parts of Gloucester and Cumberland Counties. Notably, more than one third of the district's registered voters—a plurality—are unaffiliated with any party.
In this district, Republican state Sen. Ed Durr, who beat former Democratic state Senate president Stephen Sweeney in a 2021 upset, is being challenged by Democrat John Burzichelli, who formerly served in the state Assembly as deputy speaker. Durr has come under fire various times since his election for social media posts. Durr has been called out by several fellow Republicans for old social media activity related to abortion, such as writing on Facebook in 2020, "A woman does have a choice! Keep her legs closed."
On the other hand, Burzichelli has once again been accused of "producing X-rated movies." The Democrat insists that the "Ladies Night Out 1983 Peter Adonis BETAMAX (not vhs) Rare Gay Interest Beta" listed on eBay is not pornographic, however. He told Politico it is footage of a live production of the The Peter Adonis Traveling Fantasy Show, filmed at the Broadway Theater in Pitman, New Jersey.
For state Assembly, Republican incumbent Bethanne McCarthy Patrick is running for reelection, and Thomas Tedesco Jr., Heather Simmons, and Dave Bailey Jr. are running for the seats as the Democratic nominees.
Republicans are hoping to keep the district's three positions while picking up more seats across the state.
District 4
In District Four, Republicans see an opportunity to do this. Democratic State Sen. Fred Madden is retiring, leveling the playing field between the parties. However, Democratic candidate Paul Moriarty has some name recognition of his own, previously serving as mayor of Washington Township. He's facing off against Republican Christopher Del Borrello. Defeating Moriarty may be more difficult than anticipated, though, as an independent candidate Giuseppe Costanzo is running too. Costanzo is more likely to pull votes from Del Borrello since he is using “Conservatives South Jersey" as his campaign slogan.
Democratic political newcomers Dan Hutchinson and Cody Miller are running for the Assembly seats, giving Republicans something of an edge. As a public school teacher and a former town council president, Amanda Esposito and Matthew Walker have more to campaign on. But Republicans will face an issue with independent Maureen Dukes's candidacy, who is also running under the “Conservatives South Jersey" tagline.
District 11
All eyes appear to be on legislative district 11 going into Election Day. The district is a mixed bag and currently has an incumbent Democratic state senator, Vin Gopal, and two incumbent Republican Assemblywomen, Kim Eulner and Marilyn Piperno.
The state Senate race between Gopal and Republican challenger Steve Dnistrian has drawn national attention as groups across the country pour money into the race and into early voting initiatives. According to NJ Spotlight News, more money has been spent on races in the district than any other. Roughly $5.5 million has been spent on the district's legislative races by candidates and independent groups, of about $28 million spent on New Jersey statewide races altogether.
Geller explained, "LD 11 is a microcosm of New Jersey." He said, "There are plenty of Democrats there," but added they are "kind of moderate working-class Democrats" and not "far Left progressives."
Hugin noted the district "is a big deal because—here's the guy who's the incumbent state senator who won by just a narrow margin last time."
According to the NJGOP chairman, Gopal has been forced to defend his record as chairman of the Education committee and a member of the Health, Human Services, and Senior Citizens committee. His role on the education committee puts Gopal directly in the middle of the parental rights issue taking place in New Jersey schools.
Earlier in the year, Gov. Phil Murphy's (D-NJ) administration filed lawsuits against the Manalapan-Englishtown, Marlboro, and Middletown school districts over their policies on transgender students and the notification of parents. These towns are each relatively close to District 11.
Hugin also pointed to a scandal involving the deaths of hundreds at veterans' nursing homes in New Jersey. In September, the Justice Department released a report claiming the state of New Jersey violated the 14th Amendment rights of residents at two veterans’ homes during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the DOJ, residents faced "unreasonable harm and risk due to inadequate infection control practices and inadequate medical care."
As part of both of the corresponding committees, Hugin said Gopal has "got to run on that record."
But, he said, "He's raised a lot of money. He knows how to play the lobbyist game. He's raised a lot of money, and he's fighting hard so it's gonna be a tough race right to the end."
As races appear closer than ever and incumbent Democrats are forced to separate themselves from Biden's and Murphy's relatively poor approval ratings to maintain their Democratic trifecta in the state's government, the statewide elections could be decided by several key issues.
The Economy
Across the country, voters indicate the economy, inflation, or cost of living are their top issues. New Jersey isn't any different. Both Hugin and Jones confirmed as much. Hugin named "unaffordability" as one of the biggest issues for New Jersey voters this year. According to Jones, "pocketbook issues" are what the elections are going to come down to.
A September poll showed that Americans preferred the Republican Party on the economy by the largest margin in decades. In the Gallup survey, 53% said Republicans would handle the economy best, compared to 39% who said the Democratic Party.
With Democratic control of both the state executive and legislative branches as well as the White House, Republicans have an advantage and can campaign against their opponents using current attitudes about the economy.
Parental Rights
Issues involving the LGBT community, the rising prevalence of transgenderism, and schools have found its way to New Jersey after playing a large role in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election and being credited in part with Gov. Glenn Youngkin's (R-VA) upset win. "Education has moved clearly to the number one issue in New Jersey today," Hugin claimed.
In a win for Republicans on the issue, a poll conducted last month by Fairleigh Dickinson University showed more than half of New Jersey residents, 52%, believe "parents should have some control over what’s taught in schools." Only 22% said parents shouldn't have much of an influence on what students learn.
“Republican candidates are using these attacks because they work,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at FDU and the director of the poll. “If voters are thinking about parental control of schools when they go to the ballot box, Democrats are in real trouble.”
The poll release also noted the issue showed a significant effect on which party political independents said they would vote for. “This issue is doing a lot to move independents into the Republican column,” said Cassino. “The question, though, is whether those independent voters can be mobilized in what’s normally a very low turnout election.”
According to Jones, the education issue is "where the extremism comes in, and that's where they're scaring parents."
The New Jersey Democratic Chairman said Republicans are claiming "there's not going to be any ability for a parent and know where their child's preferences [are], and that's just absolutely untrue." Jones dismissed the parental rights concern as a "talking point" for the GOP, adding, "When you talk to a voter, they begin to understand how extreme that is and how unrealistic that is. So, that's been pretty much the game plan there, and to a large extent, it's been pretty successful."
Abortion
After the U.S. Supreme Court's reversal of Roe V. Wade in 2022, abortion policies have grown further apart from state to state, with some of the more Republican-led states banning the practice almost entirely. On the other hand, some more progressive states have legalized all abortions.
New Jersey, according to Geller, is a "Pro-Choice" state. It may not be as progressive on the matter as California, for example, but the citizens and voters are generally supportive of access to abortion.
Even Hugin, the GOP chairman in the state, said, "I happen to be personally pro-choice, and my family's pro-choice." He explained the state party's "big tent" nature, adding, "We have pro-choice Republicans who are in the legislature. We have pro-life Republicans."
But, Hugin said, "Right now, the Democrats are the extremists on abortion." He said the party is supporting "abortion up to the day of birth," saying "everybody sees that as an extreme position."
He further claimed the issue just isn't at the forefront of voters' minds in the statewide elections. "It's not an issue that's really resonating. We've seen it actually declining in the polls," he said.
Democratic state chairman Jones seemed to disagree with this, though. "The issue of reproductive freedoms is always going to be part and parcel of the conversation given the fact that women are a significant voting bloc within each of those legislative districts," he pointed out.
Geller added, "Anyone would be remiss to discount abortion as a major issue in the post-Dobbs era in a state like New Jersey."
Another analyst who has been tracking the campaigns claimed abortion is certainly an "issue that's going to correlate." They pointed specifically to evidence of Republicans doing worse in areas with more voters who support abortion since the Dobbs decision.
According to the analyst, Republicans have missed the opportunity to message to swing voters on the issue, instead speaking only to Republican voters.
"Democrats have been doing a masterful job of using abortion as pushback," they said. And, they added, "Abortion is going to win."
"I think it's a failure to connect. Let's call it a failure to connect with swing voters," the analyst continued. "So I think advantage Democrats."
Voter Turnout and Money
Historic amounts of money have been injected into New Jersey legislative races in 2023 while the parties make competing pushes for early and absentee voting during traditionally low-turnout races.
Hugin explained, "We invested more money in vote by mail and early voting, but it's going to take a decade for us to get back on even footing with the Democrats."
"The trends are good. We're making progress, but we still have more work to do," he said.
On the other hand, Jones noted the state's Democratic Party is "replete with experience" in the practices of early voting and voting by mail.
According to Geller, "The Republicans have to play catch-up."
"It's good that they're investing in it. Let's see if it turns into actual early votes, where they can reduce — if not eliminate democratic advantages — heading into Election Day," he added.
While New Jersey's GOP doesn't enjoy the early voting movement Virginia does, helmed by Youngkin, it has received some help. In September, the Republican State Leadership Committee cut a $1 million ad promoting voting by mail. The ad told voters they needed to vote to avoid turning New Jersey into California, assuring them that voting by mail is "safe and secure."
Despite the push for early voting, with five days until Election Day on Nov. 2, Democrats had recorded more than double the amount of advance votes than Republicans. Democrats reportedly submitted 263,334 ballots either early or by mail, while Republicans had less than 100,000.
As for investments, money has poured into close races across the state. Several large investments have come from national groups who see opportunities or cause for concern in the state. Democratic organizations such as Middle Ground PAC, Brighter Future Forward PAC, and Democratic Senate Majority Leader Nick Scutari's Prosperity Rising NJ PAC have reportedly spent over $7 million, while Republican-aligned groups Stronger Foundations, Strengthen Our State, Women for a Stronger New Jersey, and RSLC spent just under $4 million.
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Last month, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee waded into the statewide races, spending $50,000 on Democratic campaigns in the 11th, 16th, and 38th districts.
“The DLCC does not take any majority for granted, and we know Republicans are spending big to try to erode progress in states like New Jersey. That’s why we’re announcing our new investments to counter the flood of Republican spending in the state,” said interim President Heather Williams. “We aren’t taking anything for granted. The Democratic trifecta in New Jersey is what protects people from MAGA extremism, and we must elect our DLCC Spotlight Candidates to maintain our majorities and keep New Jersey moving forward.”