EXCLUSIVE — No Labels is brushing off efforts by outside political groups to squash its plans for a third-party presidential ticket in 2024, arguing it is well-positioned to dismantle the two-party system should it launch an alternative bid next year.
“For months, there has been a coordinated effort by partisan Democratic operatives and former never-Trump Republicans to subvert No Labels’ 2024 presidential insurance project, weaving a tale that an independent ticket could never win the presidency in 2024 and could only ‘spoil’ the election in favor of former President Trump,” the group wrote in a memo obtained exclusively by the Washington Examiner. “Now, these operatives are out with a new poll that unintentionally proves the point No Labels has been making all along: There is a historic opening for an independent Unity presidential ticket in 2024.”
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The memo comes in response to reports that a bipartisan group of former lawmakers is planning to thwart a third-party ticket by No Labels, arguing such a move would disproportionately siphon votes away from President Joe Biden and pave the way for former President Donald Trump to return to the White House. That group has already commissioned polling of voters in a handful of key swing states that show a third-party candidate would all but guarantee a Trump return to the White House.
The numbers show that in a hypothetical rematch between Biden and Trump, the president would win reelection by 3 percentage points, according to polling by Prime Group obtained by the Washington Examiner. However, when a “moderate, independent, third-party candidate” is introduced to the mix, the results favor Trump by roughly 2 points.
However, in both cases, there remains a substantial percentage of voters who remain undecided. In the case of a three-way between Biden, Trump, and a third option, about 21% of voters say they remain undecided — which No Labels says provides an “unprecedented opening” for the third-party candidate to win.
"When you start off at 21% so far out from the election before any kind of campaign has been launched to inform voters about the vision and issue positions a moderate independent ticket would have, the only thing that you can expect is growth,” Dritan Nesho, chief pollster for No Labels, told the Washington Examiner. “Growth in awareness, growth in favorability, growth in recognition."
Outside Democratic groups have pushed back on No Labels and its efforts for months, pointing to historic evidence showing third-party candidates typically do poorly in general elections. Others have argued a third-party ticket would provide a crucial boost to the GOP and open the door for Trump or a MAGA-aligned candidate to be elected.
However, No Labels pointed to the group’s polling that shows Biden losing to Trump in head-to-head matchups in a number of battleground states that were crucial to his victory in 2020, including Arizona and Georgia. When a third-party candidate is introduced in either of those states, support for both Biden and Trump diminishes — disproving the theory of a “spoiler candidate,” they said.
"For us, this was a great validation of our own research of the potential path to victory for an independent ticket,” Nesho said, noting a third-party ticket would likely pull equal support from both sides.
The group argues that outside polling seeking to quash its efforts only serves to validate the option of a third-party candidate — suggesting any opposition stems from a fear of disrupting the status quo.
"Introducing a new choice is going to shake those interests up, both on the Democratic side and on the Republican side,” Nesho said. “You wouldn't attack an initiative or an effort if you didn't think that initiative or that effort has the ability to win. As we've said all along since December, we're in this unprecedented moment in modern American history where an independent really has a viable path."
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The memo comes as No Labels prepares to release its policy agenda for the 2024 cycle on Sunday, followed by its first town hall event on Monday. That event will feature a number of bipartisan political leaders, including Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, as the keynote speakers.
Manchin is considered to be a top contender for the No Labels ticket, and the West Virginia senator has made clear “everything is on the table” when considering his options for next year.