As a likely 2024 matchup between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden looms, recent polling shows that introducing a centrist third-party candidate into the election would shift voter support to Republicans.
The findings from Data for Progress support a recent argument made by the Democratic Party that a third-party candidate, likely from the No Labels party, would "siphon votes" away from Biden and contribute to a Republican victory in the presidential election.
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No Labels, a centrist party group working to gain access to ballots across all 50 states, has sought to open the door for a third-party candidate in several presidential elections. For the 2024 election specifically, the group hoped to provide alternatives to Trump or Biden for voters who do not want to see a repeat of 2020.
Data for Progress's poll matched up Biden and Trump with a "moderate Independent candidate" and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who has left the door open about running third party in 2024.
When Hogan is thrown into the race, he only receives 6% of the vote but brings the race between Trump and Biden to a tie. When the "moderate Independent candidate" is an option to replace Hogan, they receive 13% of the support, delivering Trump a narrow victory. When polled head to head, Biden leads Trump 47% to 45%.
“Our polling makes clear that a No Labels candidate would almost surely spoil the election in favor of Trump and hand our country over to right-wing extremism,” said Danielle Deiseroth, executive director at Data for Progress. “The stakes of the 2024 general election for our country and democracy are too high for a billionaire-backed vanity project."
"Even a hypothetical moderate Independent candidate — who voters could envision in their heads, free from the political baggage or the scrutiny of a voting record — has no plausible path to victory," Deiseroth continued.
No Labels said the party would likely exit the race entirely if Trump is not the GOP candidate. Ryan Clancy, chief strategist for No Labels, told the Washington Examiner last week that based on No Labels's polling, many Republican voters who do not see Trump's name on the ballot will not show up to vote. Because of this, it would "close off the potential path for an independent ticket," he said.
The group has launched a $70 million campaign to secure an independent ticket in the United States, gaining momentum in Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and Alaska and drawing criticism from Democrats and their allies.
The organization has received pushback from Democrats and anti-Trump allies, criticizing the bid for a unity presidential ticket, claiming it could lead to a Trump and GOP victory. Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) told the Washington Examiner in mid-June that No Labels is wasting resources and that the organization “divides voters and has one obvious outcome — reelecting Donald Trump as president."
However, No Labels said it would halt its efforts if early polling shows Biden significantly further ahead of Trump. The group said they will make a decision after Super Tuesday and before the No Labels national convention in Dallas, which will be held on April 14, 2024.
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Still, the party is refusing to rule out anyone for their third-party candidate, including Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV). Manchin is up for reelection in 2024 but does not plan to announce his campaign plans until 2024. There is rising speculation he could announce a run for president or retire, as well.
The poll was conducted from May 25 to June 5 with a survey of 1,625 voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.