A new poll shows New Jersey’s gubernatorial candidates, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, locked in a dead heat with less than two months to the election.
The survey from Emerson College, its first of the governor’s race, released Thursday, found both Sherrill and Ciattarelli polling at 43%. It found Sherrill leading with young voters and voters in their 40s, while Ciattarelli leads among voters over 50 years old.
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New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest will serve as a temperature check on President Donald Trump’s policies and the effectiveness of Democrats to bounce back and regain voters’ trust after the 2024 election.
Though Trump’s approval rating is underwater in New Jersey, per the poll, Democrats are unlikely to be able to solely rely on the president’s dwindling numbers, given that the state swung 10 points in his favor during the 2024 election. He lost New Jersey by 6 points, a significant boost compared to the 10 points he lost by in 2020.
Sherrill has represented New Jersey’s 11th District since 2018 and is running a more establishment campaign compared to her progressive primary challengers and fellow House colleagues. Still, the congresswoman has largely positioned herself on an anti-Trump platform, and she continues to try to tie Ciattarelli, a one-time Trump critic, to the president.
Ciattarelli is banking on the fact that New Jersey residents are ready to move away from outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy and decades of Democratic lawmaking in the state. He snagged a key endorsement from the New Jersey police union, which backed Murphy during his first gubernatorial campaign.
But the Republican has had difficulty breaking Sherrill’s lead in polls until Thursday. An August poll from Rutgers University’s Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling found Sherrill with a 9-point lead over Ciattarelli, 44% to 35% among likely voters.
RealClearPolitics’s polling average shows that, despite the dead heat from Emerson College’s poll, Sherrill still has an 8.5-point lead over Ciattarelli, 47.3% to 40.8%.
The race will likely come down to energy policy, the economy, and the effect of Trump and the Republicans’ work in Washington. Rising energy costs have emerged as a focal point in this year’s election, with the candidates blaming the other party for the problem.
A poll conducted by Quinnipiac University in early September found more likely New Jersey voters backing Sherrill over Ciattarelli, 42% to 40%, when asked which candidate would do a better job of handling electricity costs in the state. The poll’s margin of error was 3.9 points.
ENERGY POLICY EMERGES AS FOCAL POINT IN NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL DEBATE
Ramifications from a possible government shutdown, as well as the GOP’s “big, beautiful bill” whose reforms to Medicaid could affect millions’ healthcare plans, could also sway voters heading into the 2025 gubernatorial election.
New Jersey’s race is not the only one serving as a bellwether this year. In Virginia, former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger maintains a comfortable lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.