After President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause in imposing his “Liberation Day” tariffs, trade adviser Peter Navarro touted the possibility of “90 deals in 90 days.” In truth, it hasn’t been that easy, and the deadline is up on July 9. This Washington Examiner series, 90 Deals in 90 Days, will look at how we got here, where we’re going, and some of the unforeseen consequences that have cropped up.
President Donald Trump’s decision to extend his pause again on “Liberation Day” tariffs is keeping U.S. trading partners and consumers on their toes about whether price hikes will ever materialize.
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Though senior Trump administration officials predicted that the president would secure 90 new trade deals over the 90-day pause, Trump entered Monday with inking deals with three countries: the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and China. Furthermore, the China deal only lasts through the summer, as Beijing and Washington continue negotiations toward a more permanent agreement.
‘NINETY DEALS IN 90 DAYS’: WHERE THINGS STAND AS TRADE DEADLINE FAST APPROACHES
And even as countries furiously pitched new proposals over the weekend, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trump decided to sign an executive order Monday evening, kicking his July 9 deadline for higher tariff rates back to Aug. 1.
Senior Trump administration officials remain adamant that Trump is committed to implementing his tariff agenda, but the multiple times that Trump has amended or delayed the policies make predicting the real-world effects virtually impossible.
Does Trump chicken out?
Even after months of experts forecasting that Trump’s tariff agenda would crater the economy and spike inflation, negative economic indicators have yet to fully materialize. Wall Street traders, after a few sessions of “Liberation Day” panic, now seem to believe that the president’s tariffs won’t actually go into effect.
The sentiment has been colloquialized as TACO — Trump always chickens out — with traders betting that Trump lacks the courage to see his tariff agenda through to completion and risk the possible economic and political blowback.
Yet senior administration officials told the Washington Examiner that Trump is committed to a fundamental reset of U.S. trade relationships and, by extension, the global economy.
“President Trump is fighting every single day to stop other countries from taking advantage of the United States, like they’ve done under Republican and Democratic administrations for decades,” one White House official said. “His policies aren’t about pleasing Wall Street. They’re about protecting Main Street, protecting everyday Americans who are sick of Biden’s inflation, and he’ll never stop fighting for them.”
Trump hinted last week that he plans to send letters to trading partners who haven’t brokered a new deal or simply refuse to engage in good-faith tariff negotiations ahead of the July 9 deadline, informing them of the new rate they would begin paying in August. The first of those letters was sent Monday afternoon. Trump posted screenshots of the letters he first sent to Japan and South Korea, which included their new tariff rate of 25% beginning next month. A flurry of letters followed that threatened new Aug. 1 tariffs, including on Cambodia (36%), Myanmar (40%), Thailand (36%), and Laos (40%).
However, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt rejected during her Monday briefing that the letters marked a concession from the White House that negotiating these new deals has proved more difficult than it hoped.
“Weeks ago, I stood at this podium and I told all of you that the president was going to create tailor-made trade plans for each and every country on this planet, and that’s what this administration continues to be focused on,” she said.
Leavitt said Trump’s phone “rings off the hook from world leaders all the time who are begging him to come to a deal,” and the delay is needed to ensure the best deal.
“They’re a tone setter,” a second senior White House official added. “There’s been a lot going on in the world, I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention, so we’re just telling these other countries that the president hasn’t forgotten and is adamant about fixing this problem.”
Year-end forecasts
Despite Wall Street getting used to Mexican food, trade experts and international financial organizations remain adamant that Trump is fully committed to his tariff agenda and that if implemented, it will cause significant economic pain.
“My view is that tariffs are here to stay,” Andrew McAllister, a member of Holland & Knight’s International Trade Group, told Al Jazeera. “I view the bargaining chip to be the level at which the tariff is set. For countries in which the president and administration view tariffs and other non-tariff barriers against US products as significant, he is much more likely to impose higher levels of tariffs.”
JP Morgan estimated that Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” agenda and increased levies on China would shrink gross domestic product by a full point next year.
In June, the World Bank Organization for Economic Development downgraded its outlook for global economic growth from 2.8% to 2.3% based on Trump’s tariffs.
BEHIND THE SCENES OF TRUMP’S FULL-COURT PRESS BEFORE FINAL ‘BIG, BEAUTIFUL’ VOTE
Dutch banking group ING issued a memo on Friday, saying, “The jury’s out on whether we’re still waiting on the worst of the tariff hit.”
“The delay in China’s tariff levels probably came just in time to avert a more serious recessionary threat. The latest jobs report certainly doesn’t point to the bottom falling out of the labour market, though if we’re talking about time lags, this is usually the last place economic damage shows up,” ING economists said. “Sentiment remains fragile, remember.”