In almost any other scenario, describing someone who is down 40-50 points in national polls as “rising” would likely elicit a description akin to “delusional.” Still, this is Republican Party politics in the Trump era, and with looming indictments and nary a vote cast in a primary, as the late Yankees great Yogi Berra would say, “It ain’t over till it’s over.”
Nikki Haley, the first candidate not named Donald Trump to enter the race for the 2024 nomination, is the Republican candidate showing the most gains over the last couple of months. There is a path for her to get the nomination, but it is razor-thin and relies in part on circumstances beyond her control.
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Haley has improved in recent early state polls. While she remains in third place in Iowa polling, behind Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Trump, she took over second place in New Hampshire and South Carolina, the latter no doubt aided by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) dropping out of the race. The bad news for Haley is that, according to FiveThirtyEight, Trump’s polling average is above 50% in the state.
Betting markets also have Trump in a dominating position, with Haley surpassing DeSantis. PredictIt currently has a "Yes" for Trump about who will win the 2024 GOP nomination at 76 cents, while Haley sits at 19 cents, and DeSantis is a distant third with 7 cents. Polymarket is similar: Trump is at 84 cents, Haley 18, and DeSantis 11.
For all of Trump’s dominance, one thing that seems to stand out is the number of primary voters willing to choose a different candidate. For example, in a recent CBS/YouGov primary poll, one showing Trump with a dominating lead of 61%, only 28% said they’d consider supporting no one other than Trump. A solid 47% said they’d consider Trump and other candidates, and 25% said they’re not considering Trump at all.
Haley’s recent boost has clearly rattled the DeSantis campaign and some of his boosters, particularly when Americans for Prosperity Action recently endorsed her over Trump and DeSantis in the primary. Andrew Romeo, a spokesman for the DeSantis campaign, tweeted, “Congratulations to Donald Trump on securing the Koch endorsement. Like clockwork, the pro-open borders, pro-jail break bill establishment is lining up behind a moderate who has no mathematical pathway of defeating the former president. Every dollar spent on Nikki Haley’s candidacy should be reported as an in-kind [contribution] to the Trump campaign.”
It showed in the latest GOP primary debate that took place on Dec. 6 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. Unlike the first three debates, Haley spent most of the evening on defense, fending off criticism from DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy. DeSantis didn’t make it through his opening statement before going after Haley, declaring that “she caves” on policy when it comes to puberty blockers and sex transition surgeries for minors. DeSantis also went after Haley, claiming she’d do whatever “Wall Street liberal donors” want and would “cave” to them regarding anything involving China.
Ramaswamy, sounding more like a troll on X than a presidential candidate, called Haley a “fascist neocon with lipstick.” He called her “corrupt” and said, “This is a woman who will send your kids to die so she can buy a bigger house.” At one point, he held up a legal pad on which he wrote, “Nikki = Corrupt." Ramaswamy’s screeds against Haley were greeted with loud boos from the audience and a scolding from former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who said of Haley, “This is a smart, accomplished woman.”
“I love the attention, fellas,” Haley quipped at one point after a barrage directed her way.
Elsewhere, people have sneeringly referred to Haley like DeSantis did in the fourth debate — as the choice of the “donor class.” Most of the ire seemed directed at Haley’s foreign policy views. She is definitely a hawk, but that does not mean, as some people suggest, that she is therefore a “neocon” and an advocate of “forever wars.” Of course, in the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, “foreign policy” these days is limited almost entirely to the Russia-Ukraine war. Haley has repeatedly said that continued support for Ukraine is in the interest of the United States because stopping Putin would deter him from future attacks on other countries, such as Poland. DeSantis and Trump have both argued that it is not in the American national interest to keep backing Ukraine. While DeSantis opposes providing Ukraine with more military aid, Trump has been cagey about it, imploring congressional Republicans to supply no more funding until the Biden administration cooperates with investigations into the president and the business dealings of his son Hunter Biden. No one seems to take issue with Haley’s vigorous defense of Israel, and most agree with her criticism of Ramaswamy, who wants to cut financial aid to Israel.
Others seem to liken her to a cutout of the late Sen. John McCain or Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), suggesting that she is the choice of the dreaded “establishment,” which goes hand in hand with the “donor class” or, in some cases, “the ruling class.” There is some irony in people using such Marxist phraseology while proclaiming themselves “real” conservatives and condemning Haley as a “RINO,” or Republican in Name Only.
Haley is, in truth, a conventional Republican. She is culturally conservative but not a culture warrior, though she aligns with most Republicans in, for example, wanting to protect girls school sports from biological males who identify as female. She is anti-abortion but won’t commit to enacting federal legislation outlawing abortion. That alienates groups such as the Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, which declared it will not support a candidate who doesn’t support at least a 15-week federal ban. On almost any other policy, Haley’s position doesn’t differ all that much from Trump’s or DeSantis’s, whether it is the economy, the border, immigration, the Second Amendment and crime, education, and climate change.
Haley also has the experience that people with more than a passing interest in politics look for in a presidential candidate. She possesses legislative experience, having served in the South Carolina House of Representatives, executive experience as the governor of South Carolina, and foreign policy experience as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Haley is young. She would turn 53 on inauguration day on Jan. 20, 2024. She would also become the first woman elected president in the nation’s history. Haley also belongs to a minority, for she is the daughter of immigrant Sikh parents from India.
Haley fairs better head-to-head against President Joe Biden than either Trump or DeSantis in several national presidential polls. In the RealClearPolitics average, Trump leads Biden by 2 points, DeSantis leads Biden by 1, and Haley leads Biden by 5. One battleground state poll of registered voters from the Marquette University Law School shows Biden beating Trump in Wisconsin by 2 points. DeSantis leads Biden by 2. But Haley leads Biden by 9.
With all those positives, it’s difficult to plumb the visceral reaction some people have toward Haley’s rise in the past several months. The most common criticism seems to be that Haley is not the “fighter” people are looking for. Activist voters on the Right want a pugilist — someone who will argue and slam the press, attack Democrats at every turn, fight the “woke Left,” fight the “deep state,” fight the “establishment” and anyone else, using the power of the executive branch to do it.
That leaves Haley in a precarious position, with time running out. GOP hopefuls are little more than a month away from the start of voting, with the Iowa caucuses beginning on Jan. 15. A mere eight days later is the New Hampshire primary. Candidates will then have over a month to determine their next steps before the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24.
Haley would benefit if Christie, who at this point seems hellbent on being the 2024 version of the 2016 John Kasich, a candidate with no chance of winning anything but who remains in the race as a spoiler, dropped out before New Hampshire. Ramaswamy’s “mini-me” Trump act wore thin after the first GOP debate and looks as if he’s headed toward big losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. That leaves DeSantis. DeSantis has invested a lot of time and money into winning Iowa, but it likely would take heavy losses in Iowa and New Hampshire for him even to consider leaving the race open to Haley before the South Carolina primary in February.
For Haley to win the nomination, she must get to a point where she faces off against Trump head-to-head. If that happens, the razor-thin path she now has widens and provides her with the opportunity to do the one thing she cannot do while there are three or four candidates in the race: make the case that she’s in a better position to beat President Joe Biden in 2024.
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Jay Caruso is a writer and editor residing in West Virginia.