Former President Donald Trump being found liable for sexual abuse and defamation in his civil lawsuit against one-time Elle columnist E. Jean Carroll has become a dividing line in the 2024 Republican primary, albeit a very light one.
While Democrats speculate that the Carroll case will help their party connect with independent women next year after the demographic tipped the midterm elections in their direction six months ago, Republicans contend the public backed Trump in 2016 despite the Access Hollywood video.
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A New York jury finding for Carroll and awarding her $5 million will likely not have 2024 repercussions for the former president's "true believers," but "in the broader Republican world," it reinforces "the collateral damage fear they have, even if unspoken, of another Trump candidacy," according to ex-New Hampshire GOP Chairman Thomas Rath.
"I suspect very few folks were surprised at the verdict," Rath told the Washington Examiner. "The verdict points [out] again the lack of broadly viable alternatives. If [former Rep. Liz] Cheney were in, she probably would pick some support up. Hard for a Trump-lite candidate to surface without being seen as disloyal. So the opening, if there is indeed one, is once again in the moderate, noncrazy center, and I am not sure there is a viable candidate there as of now."
But former GOP Govs. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, a declared candidate, and Chris Christie of New Jersey, who will decide whether to announce a campaign in the next week, are hoping to become that "noncrazy" contender, most harshly criticizing Trump over the Carroll case.
"How many coincidences are we going to have here with Donald Trump?" Christie asked Fox News Radio's Brian Kilmeade. "He must be the unluckiest S.O.B. in the world. He just has random people who he has never met before who are able to convince a jury that he sexually abused them. ... I think we all know he's not unlucky and that he engaged in this kind of conduct."
“Over the course of my over 25 years of experience in the courtroom, I have seen firsthand how a cavalier and arrogant contempt for the rule of law can backfire," Hutchinson added Tuesday. "The jury verdict should be treated with seriousness and is another example of the indefensible behavior of Donald Trump."
Multimillionaire entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, another declared candidate, was more critical of "the sheer timing" of Carroll's case, underscoring how the alleged assault occurred in the mid-1990s and that Carroll did not sue until 2019 and 2022, "far beyond the statute of limitations," thanks to a one-year exception introduced in New York.
"I'll say what everyone else is privately thinking: If the defendant weren't named Donald Trump, would we be talking about this today?Would there even be a lawsuit?" Ramaswamy asked. "Believe me: It would be a lot easier if Trump weren't in this race. But, in this country, we don't weaponize the law or decades-old allegations to undercut political opponents. I want to win this race because voters believe I can take the 'America First' movement to the next level."
"Practically nothing" could undermine Trump with his base, according to Claremont McKenna College politics professor John J. Pitney.
"Among general election voters, it is another in a long list of liabilities," the former Republican aide said. "Under certain circumstances, he could win, but the case makes his climb a little steeper."
2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton had, on average, a 5 percentage point advantage over Trump the day the Access Hollywood tape was uncovered, 48% to 43%. In that recording, the then-reality TV star could be heard bragging about sexually assaulting women. But roughly a month later, by Election Day, he had recovered to be only 3 points behind, 47% to 44%, defeating the former secretary of state after more developments emerged regarding her private email server.
Fast-forward 6 1/2 years and Trump had an average 16-point edge over his declared and undeclared Republican opponents, with 46% of the primary electorate in early polls, when he was indicted by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg for covering up hush money concerning extramarital affairs paid before the 2016 election. Now, more than a month later, he is 29 points ahead with 52% as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), another favorite who has yet to declare, makes unforced errors.
Simultaneously, Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel has repeated President Joe Biden is a problematic candidate, similar to Clinton, based on his economic, immigration, and crime policies.
“We’ve got a long way until the primary process begins,” McDaniel told Fox News. “We’ve got debates in August. As a suburban woman myself, I think a lot of women right now are looking at the Biden administration and saying, ‘Our kids are still struggling in school. Our kids are being used as pawns on TikTok as China is gathering their data.”
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As Trump's lawyers explore his appeal options, the former president, who took part in a CNN town hall Wednesday, shared a statement on social media and recorded a video in which he attacked U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan for being appointed by two-term President Bill Clinton and the jury, comprised of six men and three women, for being from "anti-Trump" New York, "the worst place in the United States for me to get a fair trial."
"I have no idea who she is, where she came from," he said of Carroll. "This is another scam. It's a political witch hunt. And somehow, we're going to have to fight this up. We cannot let our country go into this abyss. This is disgraceful."