If polling is to be believed, New York is on the verge of a massive shift toward the Republican Party and former President Donald Trump.
A new poll from Siena College indicates that President Joe Biden is leading Trump by 8 points in the Empire State, a result that mirrors a May poll from the Hill and Emerson College that showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points.
The poll is remarkable for several reasons, but especially because no Republican has won New York in a presidential election since 1984, when Ronald Reagan carried the state in his 49-state Electoral College landslide. And while there is little expectation that will change this year, such a large shift in the GOP’s direction could indicate bigger problems for Biden and the Democrats.
The roots of this shift can be found in 2022, when Republican Lee Zeldin attempted to unseat Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Zeldin, then a member of the House of Representatives, recorded the GOP’s best performance in a statewide race in two decades, losing by a margin of 6 points. But while he failed to win the governor’s mansion, Zeldin’s unexpectedly strong performance managed to propel several Republican House candidates to victory.
There are two main takeaways from the recent New York polls. First, if Biden barely squeaks out a single-digit victory in the state, he is likely in much bigger trouble elsewhere. In 2020, he won the state by 23 points, so if he were to win even by 10 points, it would be a 13-point swing in four years.
Siena has a decent track record of success when predicting the final margin for the presidential election. A June 2020 Siena poll predicted a 25-point Biden victory in the Empire State, just 2 points off the final margin five months later.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
While no two states are exactly alike, if a 13-point swing were replicated in states near New York, Trump would easily carry Pennsylvania and likely win the election. A 13-point swing in New Jersey would see Biden eke out a 2-point victory in another state that is considered reliably Democratic. If Biden were to win New York by single digits, a similar swing would see New Jersey possibly even flip to the Trump column.
While the election is still five months away, one thing is becoming abundantly clear: Biden could be in a lot more trouble with voters than anyone could have imagined.