A string of House seats in New York that Republicans managed to flip during the 2022 midterm elections were key to the GOP seizing control of the lower chamber earlier this year. Now, Democrats are plotting a path to steal those districts back.
A panel of New York judges is set to hear arguments next week over whether the state should redraw its congressional map ahead of the 2024 elections. If approved, it could open the door for Democrats to redraw state boundaries in a way that would allow the party to pick up enough seats to erase Republicans’ five-seat majority in the House.
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The decision comes after the New York Supreme Court tossed a proposed map by Democrats in 2022, ruling the party did not take the proper steps to enact the new boundaries before they were implemented. Judges then released court-drawn boundaries for use in the 2022 midterm elections that allowed Republicans to flip four seats, which was crucial for the GOP to seize its narrow majority in the House.
Republicans currently hold a five-seat majority in the lower chamber, but if New York Democrats are allowed to redraw their map, they could gerrymander their way to flipping half a dozen seats in the Empire State alone.
The strategy is hardly a new one. Republicans in North Carolina are currently operating under a similar playbook after the state GOP approved a new map altering all 14 of the state’s districts, creating 10 districts that would favor Republicans and only three that favor a Democrat. The remaining district would be considered a toss-up.
The North Carolina map all but guarantees Democratic incumbents such as Reps. Kathy Manning in the 6th Congressional District, Wiley Nickel in the 13th District, and Jeff Jackson in the 14th District would lose their seats. Jackson has already announced he would not run for reelection under those prospects, instead launching a bid for state attorney general.
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Redistricting fights are happening across the country in other states as well that could help determine the balance of power in the House next year. One of the most high-profile cases is unfolding in Alabama after a three-judge panel approved a map earlier this year creating a second black-majority district.
That decision came after the Supreme Court sided with a lower court opinion that ruled Alabama must create a second black-majority district or “something quite close to it.” That ruling could pave the way for similar decisions in states such as Louisiana and Georgia, which are also in the process of litigating their congressional maps.