A new statewide poll is showing Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight lead over former President Donald Trump in Arizona as she prepares to campaign in the Grand Canyon state with her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), on Friday.
The HighGround Public Affairs survey, which came out Thursday, found that Harris holds 44.4% while Trump holds 41.6%, which is within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.38%. About 8.8% of respondents did not know or refused to answer, while about 5.2% said they would support a different candidate in November.
The Harris campaign recently launched Republicans for Harris in an effort to reach and mobilize Republican voters who do not support Trump. The results of the poll show that Harris is already attracting a portion of the Republican electorate in Arizona, with 7.4% of likely GOP voters answering that they intend to support Harris. The poll found that Trump has some crossover support with Democrat voters, with 3.5% answering that they would support the former president.
“She’s getting a little less than 10% of Republicans — but those are big votes. It’s not just a plus one for her. It’s also a minus one for Trump,” said Chuck Coughlin, president and CEO of HighGround, in an interview with the Washington Examiner.
The poll also found that more Democrats said they would support Harris than Republicans would support Trump. About 86% of Democrats answered they would support Harris, while 79% of Republicans answered the same for Trump.
“This is how Democrats have won. You could see in ‘18, ‘20, and ‘22 that the base of the Republican Party was not broad enough; it’s not big enough. And that’s their electoral problem, and it will continue this cycle,” Coughlin added.
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In the Senate race, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) received 49.6% of the vote, while GOP candidate Kari Lake received 38.6%. About 9% of respondents said they did not know or refused, while 2.6% said they would vote for another candidate.
The Cook Political Report recently moved Arizona into the “toss-up” category from “lean Republican.” The average of recent polls still shows Trump is up by 2.8 points. The Arizona Senate race is rated “lean Democratic” by nonpartisan political handicapper the Cook Political Report, alongside races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.