An overwhelming majority of Marylanders believe Larry Hogan was a good governor. Most Marylanders will vote against him in this year’s Senate race. Why? He’s a Republican.
Nearly two-thirds of Marylanders, including most Democrats, have a favorable view of former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, who is now running for an open seat in the U.S. Senate. Yet in head-to-head polls against his most likely Democratic rivals, Hogan is in a statistical tie, well below 50%.
The new Goucher College Poll, a renowned survey in Maryland, highlights just how partisan voters have become on national politics.
When asked their view of Hogan, who governed the state for two terms, from 2015 through January 2023, 63% of Marylanders were favorable (including 27% saying very favorable), compared to 30% unfavorable. Among Democratic likely voters, Hogan was still way above water, 57% to 35% (including 22% holding a very favorable view of Hogan).
Hogan is running this fall for the U.S. Senate seat that will be vacated by retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD). In the general election, he will face either Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks or Rep. David Trone (D-MD), who are both relatively unknown (40% of adults said they didn’t know enough about Alsobrooks to have an opinion, and 29% said the same of Trone).
In the head-to-head Senate polls released by Goucher, Hogan leads Alsobrooks 44% to 40%, and he leads Trone 43% to 42%. Both of those leads are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.
Reading between the lines, at least 20% of Marylanders approve of Hogan’s two terms as governor yet are likely to vote against him in November. Many of those voters likely know nothing or very little about Alsobrooks and Trone — Trone represents one-eighth of the state, and Alsobrooks governs 1 in 6 Marylanders.
What’s going on here is obvious. Democrats who were happy to have Hogan govern them, many of whom voted for Hogan in 2014 and 2018, will simply vote for any Democrat with a pulse for the Senate.
The Senate is basically a numbers game these days, both to political insiders and voters. The only thing that matters is which party has a majority.
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The idea of “a good senator” or “a bad senator” doesn’t matter anymore in this mindset than would a “good presidential elector.” This fall, these Dem-no-matter-who voters won’t research Trone’s legislative accomplishments or Alsobrooks’s governance. They might take into account the differences between the two during the Democratic primary, but on the November ballot, their vote will not be for Alsobrooks or Trone but for Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to be Democratic leader.
Obviously, this erodes and corrodes the Senate as an institution. Intelligence, skill, conviction, courage, and honesty don’t help one get into the Senate. Just win the primary by revving up the party base and then get elected based on the single letter next to your name.