MOUNTAIN LAKES, New Jersey — New Jersey Republicans are confident they will win the gubernatorial race this year after the state GOP came within three points of doing so the last go-round

Both sides of the aisle have open, crowded primaries, but Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former state lawmaker and three-time gubernatorial candidate, is emerging as a top contender for the GOP side. In the 2021 gubernatorial race, Ciattarelli came within three points of making Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) a one-term governor.

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Political tides appear to be trending in Republicans’ favor in the Garden State. In the 2024 general election, former Vice President Kamala Harris received about 52% of the state’s vote, and President Donald Trump received about 46% — the closest a Republican got to winning the state since former President George H.W. Bush came within 2.5 points in 1992.

Swing state Arizona had nearly the inverse of these numbers and flipped blue in 2024, with 52% of voters supporting Trump and 47% supporting Harris. Both campaigns rallied heavily in Arizona, but Trump, who made just one trip to the state early in his campaign, was able to come within five points of winning it.

“Republicans are bullish on 2025,” Adam Geller, a Republican pollster based in New Jersey, told the Washington Examiner. “[Ciattarelli] came closer than most people expected in 2021, as did President Trump in 2024.”

Republicans also have voter registration numbers on their side. Since former President Joe Biden took office in 2021, New Jersey voters have increasingly registered with the Republican Party. In 2020, New Jersey Democrats had an advantage of more than a million voters, but that advantage has since dwindled down to a little more than 896,300 registered voters as of January.

Ciattarelli appears to be the front-runner in the GOP primary, and his nomination seems all but certain after Trump gave him his “Complete and Total Endorsement” in the race. Other Republicans are still in the running but do not appear to have high levels of support, according to polling. 

Democrats are in a six-way race, with Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), a veteran and self-described “pragmatic progressive,” polling as a slight favorite. Other candidates polling closely behind her include Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), a moderate House Democrat, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who is running a policy-focused campaign, and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, the farthest left of the Democratic candidates.

Except for Ocean County, which is the most Republican-leaning New Jersey county as of 2024 and has backed radio host Bill Spadea, every county’s Republican Party has supported Ciattarelli’s campaign.

“Ciattarelli has pulled away a long time ago and kind of never looked back,” state Assembly Minority Whip Brian Bergen, a Republican who represents a northern New Jersey district, told the Washington Examiner.

“One of the reasons is Jack laid so much groundwork in 2021 when he ran, he had a real challenge on his hands. He had to combat Phil Murphy’s name ID,” Bergen said, noting that Murphy was consistently in the press during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bergen, who is backing Ciattarelli in the primary, said he is the “best person for this job on the Republican side, there’s no doubt he is ready to go. He is a great person. He is an extremely brilliant lawmaker. He was a business person, and he also doesn’t just invest in himself — he invests in others around him.”

Despite the public optimism, Republicans are also facing headwinds outside their control in New Jersey, including Trump’s ability to turn out low-propensity voters that other candidates cannot. 

“We can’t expect all the people who voted for Trump to vote for our Republican candidates. People voted for Trump and then went back to ordinary business, if you look down the ballot,” Bergen said. “I’ve been trying to caution people not to believe that the Trump numbers are their numbers.”

Statewide races are also expensive in New Jersey because candidates must buy into the pricey New York and Philadelphia TV markets, because the Garden State, located between the two cities, does not have a TV market. According to an analysis from AdImpact, this gubernatorial race is already the most expensive election in New Jersey political history, with ad spending crossing $85 million as of Wednesday. The New York City market has seen $57.6M spent in ads, and the Philadelphia market has seen $19.7 million. 

Democrats have far outspent all Republican candidates on advertising. So far, Gottheimer has spent the most, $22.8 million. Fulop has spent $17.8 million, and Sherrill has spent $11.4 million. Ciattarelli has spent just under $6 million. 

Advertising on behalf of Democrats has accounted for 88% of all primary spending. Trump has been a consistent theme in ads across both parties, as the analysis found the president has been mentioned in 70% of all broadcast spots aired. Sherrill, Baraka, and Gottheimer’s broadcast ads all mention Trump.

However, if history repeats, Republicans might be out of luck this election. In New Jersey, whichever party won the presidential race the year prior, in this case the Republican Party, typically loses gubernatorial elections in the following year as voters buck the party in power in Washington, D.C.

THE NEXT SWING STATE? REPUBLICANS BELIEVE IT COULD BE NEW JERSEY

“It’s a pretty clear pattern: If the Democrats are in control of the White House, the Republicans do better here. If the Republicans control the White House, the Democrats seem to do better here,” State Senate Minority Leader Anthony Bucco, a Republican, previously told the Washington Examiner. “Here in New Jersey, the party that is out of power really does better.”

But, by that logic, patterns can also work against the Democrats. With Murphy’s term nearing its end, New Jersey residents have not voted in three consecutive gubernatorial races for a Democrat since 1961, when Democrat Richard Hughes was voted to replace former two-term Democratic Gov. Robert Meyner.