HOLMDEL, New Jersey — New Jersey voters on Tuesday night locked in a gubernatorial matchup that will be one of the first big tests of public sentiment toward President Donald Trump, his policies, and Democrats’ path forward.
The crowded primary race in the Garden State ended with former state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli winning the Republican nomination and Rep. Mikie Sherrill becoming the Democratic candidate in the race to succeed a term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ).
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As Republicans see an opening to flip the blue state in November, Democrats are banking on voters being unhappy with Trump come November and rejecting his chosen candidate.
“This state deserves the best, and a state like this is not going to be led by a Trump lackey like Jack Ciattarelli,” Sherrill said at her victory party Tuesday night in a preview of the months to come.
Meanwhile, Ciattarelli thanked Trump for his endorsement while also making a broad appeal to voters in the blue state who are tired of “ultra liberal” Democrats.
“Along the way, we also made a strong statement: What our New Jersey Republican program stands for,” Ciattarelli said at his campaign party. “A party open to anyone and everyone who’s going to work hard to play by the rules, a party of Jersey values and common sense policies.”
The state is now set to serve as a barometer of national trends, as Sherrill has set herself up as the antithesis of Trump and his Republican allies, while Ciattarelli, a one-time Trump critic, has championed the president’s agenda as his own.
“Stopping Donald Trump starts right here in New Jersey. Make no mistake about it,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin told Democratic voters in the state Friday.
However, Michael Suleiman, chairman of the Atlantic County Democratic Party, warned against Democrats solely relying on anti-Trump sentiment to get them across the finish line in November.
“We have to go beyond that,” he told the Washington Examiner. “The lesson we learned from last fall is that, you know, we need to have that second part of the message: ‘Okay, you know, what are you going to do? Okay, we’re going to stop Trump.’ Then what? How are you going to make our lives better in New Jersey?”
In 2024, Atlantic County flipped red for the first time in decades.
“As a party, we [need to] start talking about these concrete issues,” Suleiman said. “Not everything can be anti-Trump.”
Virginia also has a gubernatorial race in 2025, but unlike the Garden State, it doesn’t have a competitive primary.
While New Jersey is reliably blue in federal elections, and Trump lost New Jersey by about six points in 2024, the last election marked a significant boost for New Jersey Republicans as compared to when Trump lost the state by 16 points in 2020.
However, New Jersey Republicans are more competitive in governor’s races, with each of the last three Republican governors winning two terms. Ciattarelli came within three points of making Murphy a one-term governor in 2021.
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Trump and the economy will take center stage in the general election
While Democrats look to pin Ciattarelli as an extension of Trump, Republicans are looking to make the race a referendum on Murphy and Democratic leadership in the state.
Sherrill, who has served in Congress since 2018, will likely see Republicans attempt to tie her to the policies of former President Joe Biden. Democrats have tried to distance themselves from the Biden era as they try to win back control of at least one chamber in Congress in 2026.
Sherrill ran her gubernatorial campaign using her experience as a former federal prosecutor, a U.S. Navy helicopter pilot, and a mother. She spoke heavily on the economy and affordability, proposing lowering housing costs by boosting the number of development tax credits to build more housing.
At a campaign event in Parsippany, New Jersey, Sherrill said the two “incredibly important” topics she hears from constituents involve stopping Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda and the work of his Department of Government Efficiency. The other is the high cost of living.
“Many people can’t afford to stay here in New Jersey, so I want my kids to live here, and I want my parents to live here, and I want to stay here, and it’s become too hard,” Sherrill said.
Ciattarelli repeatedly said it does not matter which candidate he faces in November because he believes they all represent Murphy and decades of Democratic lawmaking in the state, which he has said is a “failure.”
“I don’t care who the nominee is for the other side. Number one, we’re winning,” Ciattarelli told a group of supporters in Haskell, New Jersey, on Sunday.
“Every single one of them has been complicit in Gov. Murphy’s failed policy. They’ve enabled him for eight years. They’ve enabled that 25-year reign of the Democratic Party in our state legislature,” he added. “They’ve enabled — we’re not going to let the people in New Jersey forget.”
At his victory party Tuesday night in Holmdel, New Jersey, Ciattarelli laid the groundwork to accuse Sherrill of focusing more on the president than concrete policies to help New Jersey — an ode to “Trump Derangement Syndrome,” a phrase many of Trump’s allies use to blast Democrats, like Sherrill, who are vocal critics of the president.
Ciatteralli made a drinking game reference on Tuesday night, telling voters if they “took a shot every time Mikie Sherrill says ‘Trump,’ you’re going to be drunk on your a** every minute, drunk on your a** every day between now and Nov. 4.”
However, Ciatteralli said his campaign for the governor’s mansion would be about more than just Trump.
“What does Donald Trump have to do with our property taxes? What does President Trump have to do with the rise of crime?” Ciattarelli told Fox News last month.
What happens with the Republicans’ reconciliation legislation will likely be a significant flashpoint in the general election, particularly as the next governor of New Jersey will inherit a state that is struggling under the weight of high property taxes and housing costs.
Within the legislation are reforms to Medicaid, which helps pay for healthcare for over 1.7 million New Jersey residents. It also includes a crackdown on illegal immigration, an extension of Trump’s wider agenda to fix the influx at the southern border. New Jersey has an estimated population of 440,000 illegal immigrants.
Distancing himself from Trump could be a useful strategy for Ciattarelli if the president grows unpopular come November. In 2018, Democrats saw a “blue wave,” which Sherrill was a part of, knocking out several Republican incumbents and flipping the House. And in New Jersey that year, Murphy won his race by 14 points.
State Assembly Minority Whip Brian Bergen, a Republican, told the Washington Examiner he did not think Trump would become a liability to Ciattarelli’s campaign. Still, he warned Republicans not to get ahead of themselves with confidence going into November.
“We can’t expect all the people who voted for Trump to vote for our Republican candidates. People voted for Trump and then went back to ordinary business, if you look down the ballot,” Bergen said. “I’ve been trying to caution people not to believe that the Trump numbers are their numbers.”
Trump, a part-time resident of New Jersey, has also raised the stakes of the state’s gubernatorial race. He has hardly weighed in on Virginia’s race, but has said New Jersey’s gubernatorial race is a global affair.
“New Jersey is a very important State that we must WIN. The whole World is watching,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Saturday. “Vote for Jack Ciattarelli to, MAKE NEW JERSEY GREAT AGAIN!”
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Sherrill’s spot in House remains, but sets up target for Republicans
Sherrill will now be tasked with running a campaign while also advocating New Jersey’s 11th District in one of the narrowest margins in the House. With several pieces of contentious legislation coming through the chamber, some have boiled down to one or two votes, showing that Democratic attendance does matter.
With New Jersey’s unique rules, neither Sherrill nor her fellow candidate, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), had to give up their seats in the House. Some Democrats have taken issue with that, including Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who was tracking to come in third behind Sherrill. Gottheimer came in fourth.
“Every other candidate has created a fallback political position, that if Tuesday doesn’t work out the way that they hope it does, they will stay in elected office with a political title, because that is important,” Fulop told the Washington Examiner.
“I mean, you have two members of Congress that took your money, that asked you to campaign for them, that told you that they want to be the front line against Donald Trump, which, mind you, the House of Representatives is the front line against Donald Trump,” Fulop added. “And once they got elected, 11 days later, 11 days they said, ‘Just kidding.’”
The general election does put Sherrill in a precarious position, as she will have to balance her time on the road and in Washington, opening her up to possible hits from Republicans when it comes to her voting record and connecting her to the more progressive areas of the Democratic Party.
Ciattarelli is already jumping on that narrative, calling Sherrill “Murphy 2.0” and working to connect her to Biden’s administration.
“It means she supports Phil Murphy’s unfair policies, and it means she can’t run on her own record, and here’s why: In Congress, Mikie voted 100% of the time for Joe Biden’s failed agenda of open borders,” Ciattarelli said.
“It’s time for us to now speak directly to the people of New Jersey, to independents and unaffiliated voters, who may have lost faith in both political parties and wonder whether their vote even matters anymore, to moderate Democrats who feel abandoned, alienated, and ignored by an extreme and out-of-touch ultra liberal Democratic Party in Trenton, in Washington, D.C.,” he added.
MIKIE SHERRILL WINS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY FOR NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR
Sherrill, who ran a more establishment-focused campaign compared to progressive Democrats Fulop and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, won’t have to tack as much to the center for a general election audience.
“Tonight, I pledge to you, we’re going to build something worthy of our state and worthy of our kids,” Sherrill said. “With all of you, we can take on the tough fights and win. You saw it in this election: the Democratic Party is ready for the fight.”