Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in trouble as he faces a series of unwinnable dilemmas. His situation has only been worsened by the Israeli Supreme Court’s decision on Tuesday to strike down the ultra-Orthodox community’s draft exception. Many Israel Defense Forces reservists have had to serve two or three tours in Gaza as the war drags into its ninth month. At the same time, Netanyahu’s coalition relies on ultra-Orthodox parties’ support.
The exemption for the ultra-Orthodox, known as the Haredim, has existed since the founding of the state of Israel. All other Jewish men and women have to serve three years and two years respectively. This exemption for the Haredim was less contentious when their population was smaller. But their larger families have led them to expand to 24% of the recruitment-age population. Most Haredim oppose their conscription and a significant number oppose military service in any form.
The Israeli Supreme Court has repeatedly challenged this exemption in the past. After the previous ruling against the draft exemption in 2017, the Israeli government delayed and continued to order the IDF to not conscript the Haredim. The Supreme Court ran out of patience and stated that the IDF must conscript ultra-Orthodox citizens in the absence of a law forbidding it.
While it is unlikely this will have an immediate effect as preparations would need to be made for the Haredim, it does have political consequences. Sixty percent of Israelis support conscription of the ultra-Orthodox community. But Netanyahu has had to rely on ultra-Orthodox partners to maintain his coalition. These partners are adamant about retaining their community’s draft exemption. This tension that threatens Netanyahu’s hold on political power is only the most recent dilemma for the prime minister.
Netanyahu is still struggling to find a clear end to the war in Gaza. He has said that Israel will maintain security control over Gaza for the foreseeable future, a controversial move for a population exhausted by war. Benny Gantz, a centrist member of the war Cabinet, resigned after criticizing Netanyahu’s lack of a plan for Gaza. Yoav Gallant, Netanyahu’s defense minister, has also challenged Netanyahu and said he opposed any long-term military occupation of Gaza. Finally, even the IDF spokesman said that Hamas cannot be eliminated. This directly opposes Netanyahu’s central war aim of eliminating Hamas.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
It is also increasingly possible that a war with Hezbollah in Lebanon will occur. The terrorist organization has hundreds of thousands of missiles and rockets that can overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system. But an increase in strikes from both sides and the prolonging of civilians’ displacement at the border has only ratcheted up tensions.
Netanyahu may not face immediate political consequences for the tough choices he has had to make and will continue to make. Elections are not required until 2026 and the ultra-Orthodox parties are still allied with him for now. But the future is not looking bright for Netanyahu and parliamentary realities limit his options. Whatever course he takes, political doom likely awaits.