Tuesday marks Nebraska‘s congressional and presidential primaries, and one House seat could decide the presidential 2024 election thanks to the state’s delegate rules.
Eyes will be on the 2nd Congressional District, represented by Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), who is likely to face a Democratic opponent he defeated narrowly by less than 6,000 votes in 2022. Nebraska’s 2nd District could be the lynchpin for deciding whether former President Donald Trump or President Joe Biden wins in November, a fact that pushed Republicans to try and alter the way Electoral College votes are allocated.
Nebraska is one of two states, the other being Maine, that awards electoral delegates proportionally. In 2020, Biden won one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes — despite the state typically voting Republican in presidential elections — because he got the most votes in Bacon’s 2nd District.
A month before Tuesday’s primary, Gov. Jim Pillen (R-NE) began pushing the state legislature to move forward with a “winner-take-all” system, backing efforts from Republican state lawmakers and Trump allies like Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk to try and remove any chance of Biden claiming a delegate.
“It would bring Nebraska into line with 48 of our fellow states, better reflect the founders’ intent, and ensure our state speaks with one unified voice in presidential elections,” Gov. Jim Pillen said in April. “I call upon fellow Republicans in the Legislature to pass this bill to my desk so I can sign it into law.”
The reason? The 2nd District’s delegates could be the votes that help push Biden over the finish line in the event of a tie between him and Trump. Polling shows that this presidential election will likely come down to a handful of votes, making Trump allies worried that even a Republican stronghold like Nebraska could produce a Democratic candidate in the end.
Trump himself supported Pillen’s efforts, praising the “very smart and popular Governor” for endorsing the winner-take-all system.
“Most Nebraskans have wanted to go back to this system for a very long time, because it’s what 48 other States do — It’s what the Founders intended, and it’s right for Nebraska,” Trump said on Truth Social at the time. “Thank you Governor for your bold leadership. Let’s hope the Senate does the right thing.”
However, legislators overwhelmingly declined to change the system, meaning that two electoral votes are awarded to the statewide winner and the vote winner in each of the state’s three congressional districts is awarded one vote. The 2nd District, being the solid red state’s only swing district, could choose to vote for Biden again in 2024.
Bacon himself supports the winner-take-all system, telling CNN in April that he thinks it “undermines the influence of Nebraska.” He, along with Pillen, has endorsed Trump in the 2024 election.
Nebraska Republicans had floated a special session to revive debate on the winner-take-all system. The unique unicameral, technically nonpartisan, legislature ended its session on April 18, but many lawmakers are expecting to make a return later this year for a special session, per the Nebraska Examiner. Whether the winner-take-all system will be adopted during that session before the November election is unlikely but possible, depending on the date.
Bacon is favored to win his GOP primary Tuesday against businessman Dan Frei. In a swing district consisting of Omaha that has been held by Bacon since 2016, appealing to both red and blue voters is key.
He is not afraid to admonish his hardline colleagues, particularly those in the Freedom Caucus, a coalition he has said does not accurately represent the Republican Party. Frei, if elected, told to the Nebraska Examiner that he would join it.
“I think where we’re really different is our temperament. I believe in being a happy warrior,” Bacon said to Nebraska Public Media about the differences between him and Frei. “I know you get more with a smile and enthusiasm than anger.”
Bacon has the endorsement of Pillen and other GOP leaders. However, Frei, who is running a populist-type campaign, nabbed endorsements from the Douglas County GOP and the Nebraska Republican Party itself — marking the first time in that none of the five members of Nebraska’s all-GOP delegation received an endorsement from the state party.
Though there have been no public polls, per the Omaha World-Herald, Bacon said his campaign has conducted internal polls showing him leading by 50 points. Frei has lost before, after running an unsuccessful campaign against then-Rep. Lee Terry Jr. in 2014.
Terry went on to lose the general election to former Rep. Brad Ashford, marking the first time since 1992 that a Democrat won the 2nd District. Bacon unseated Ashford in 2016 and has held the seat ever since.
If Bacon defeats Frei, he will go on to face Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, who is running unopposed in the primary. Vargas lost to Bacon by a slim margin of 51%-49%, or less than 6,000 votes, in 2022.
A February internal Vargas poll shared with the Nebraska Examiner found that Vargas led Bacon, 46% to 43% among 2nd District voters — aligning with ratings from Inside Elections and Crystal Ball that Bacon’s race is set to be one of the most competitive in 2024.
Bacon told the outlet in March that Democratic polls have shown him trailing in every race but he is still winning and serving as congressman.
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“It is like clockwork,” Bacon said. “And every time, the actual election results don’t match their polling. Their polling is intentionally skewed to the left.”
The Washington Examiner reached out to Bacon for comment.