NATO forces are tightening patrols in the Baltic Sea following a pair of “man-made disasters” fueling suspicion that Russia has begun a long-feared hybrid warfare campaign against alliance infrastructure.
Estonia and Finland, the newest member of NATO, announced on Oct. 11 that a natural gas pipeline between their countries had sustained “possibly intentional damaging.” Separately, telecommunications cables linking the Nordic state to Estonia also suffered “partial damage,” according to Swedish authorities.
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“We call [it] an incident against our undersea infrastructure between two major NATO member states,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told the Washington Examiner this week. “We [have to] investigate — is it a coincidence? Or what really happened? But it is not some kind of environmental thing. It's a man-made disaster.”
“There are suspicions," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told local press on Wednesday. "There is no denying that. If and when it becomes possible to [p]ut these three incidents together, or if there is a reason to do so, then of course this will be announced."
Sweden applied to join NATO in tandem with Finland. Most allies have ratified its accession to the security alliance. Turkey and Hungary have delayed their ratification of the application because the process may provide them diplomatic leverage in separate disputes with the United States and the European Union.
“We continue to monitor the situation closely, and we remain in close contact with our allies Estonia and Finland and our partner Sweden,” acting NATO spokesman Dylan White said on Thursday. “NATO will continue to adapt its maritime posture in the Baltic Sea and will take all necessary steps to keep allies safe.”
The damage done in each incident was relatively small scale, leaving open the possibility of an innocent explanation — “there is still a possibility that it was ... just an accident,” an Estonian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokeswoman noted — but the allies aren’t resting easy.
“We have to think about everything, so [that’s] why we’re investigating, together with Finland and Sweden, what really happened,” Tsahkna said. “Also, we are members of NATO. So we are having a communication between our partners, NATO, and also the EU. But we take it very seriously.”
Baltic leaders said they believe it is “approximately clear what direction this is going in,” as Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics put it after conversations with his counterparts in Finland and Sweden. Western allies long have worried that Russia would target Baltic Sea pipelines and cables “as part of a broader hybrid warfare campaign,” as former Lithuanian diplomat Lukas Trakimavicius wrote in a 2021 report for the NATO Energy Security Center of Excellence, and the Latvian leader suggested NATO may need to deprive Russia of naval access to the Baltic Sea.
“If we see incidents of this nature, NATO should, in my understanding, simply effectively close the Baltic Sea for shipping," Rinkevics said. "You can do that. Ships can be stopped."
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman denied responsibility for the incident. "Russia has never had anything to do and will never have anything to do with any actions of this kind,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted.
The incidents evoke the controversy around the sabotage of Nord Stream pipelines linking Russia to Germany, which already had been shut down by Berlin, as well as U.S. sanctions.
Those explosions occurred in September 2022, on the same day that European officials opened a pipeline linking Poland to Norway’s natural gas fields. At the time, Moscow hoped that Europe’s customary dependence on Russian natural gas would undermine political support for aid to Ukraine when the whether in Europe turned cold.
“If it's clearly proven to be Russia, the ... discussion has to be that to protect our critical infrastructure, there needs to be a conversation about how we can close the Baltic Sea,” Rinkevics told Latvian Public Broadcasting.
Lithuanian lawmakers plan to deploy “an underwater capability” to upgrade their surveillance around energy infrastructure near the port of Klaipeda.
"This includes both land and underwater entrances to the port,” Lithuanian National Security and Defense Committee Chairman Laurynas Kasciunas said on Friday. “We are now working out a strategy for generating capabilities to ensure protection in this area.”
The applications of Sweden and Finland to join the alliance render the Baltic Sea almost a “NATO lake,” as Western officials like to say, but Russia retains sovereignty over Kaliningrad — an “exclave” on the Baltic coast between Lithuania and Poland that the Soviet Union acquired after World War II.
“Specific facts need to be put on the table to start talking to allies about anything,” Rinkevics said. “If we get to the situation of having to articulate a position after all these facts, then this is one solution that I would definitely put on the table.”
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Those investigations are unfolding amid a “barrage of hoax bomb threats” targeting schools across the Baltic states, Tsahnka noted.
“Sabotage is a strong word,” the Estonian foreign minister allowed. “We are constantly [facing] cyberattacks — like, hundreds per 24 hours. This is normal life. And many of them are coming from Russia. So if you see all the picture — so, distraction, distraction, many new different conflicts, many new things. So, serving Putin’s will.”