In the aftermath of President Donald Trump‘s address to a joint session of Congress, Elon Musk made a big prediction.

“After tonight, I am increasingly convinced that we can get to 60 Senators,” Musk said in a post on X early March 5.

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There are currently 13 Democratic seats and 22 Republican seats up for election in the 2026 midterm elections. Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) will not seek reelection, giving Republicans an opportunity to attack two open seats.

Republicans will need to flip seven seats while defending all of theirs to win a 60-vote majority.

Michigan and Georgia, both won by Trump in 2024, appear to be the easiest seats to flip. After those, however, the path to 60 seats narrows. Minnesota, Virginia, New Jersey, and New Mexico could be dark horse candidates to flip.

Smith won Minnesota by about five points in a solid year for Democrats. In 2026, there will not be any incumbency advantage, and it is not unreasonable to see a Republican win the seat.

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) won by over 12 points in 2020, indicating the likelihood of Virginia being a safe Democratic seat. He could, however, face the popular Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) in a Senate race, making margins closer than one might expect.

For the other states, Republicans could attempt to parlay Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters into a Senate win in New Mexico. New Jersey shifted Republican by almost five points in 2024 and could possibly become a toss-up state.

After all that, however, Republicans would still only hold 59 seats, needing one more to flip. New Hampshire may be the next most likely option, as the state always seems to be on the cusp of being a swing state.

Musk’s prediction certainly seems bold. Midterm elections are historically challenging for the incumbent party. In recent history, former President George W. Bush had a net gain of two Senate seats in 2002, and former President Joe Biden added one in 2022.

The last midterm election with at least a seven-seat flip in favor of the incumbent party was 1934, in which FDR’s Democrats flipped nine Senate seats.

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Seven seats is definitely a big ask, but it is definitely reasonable to see Republicans flip one or two seats in 2026.

If Musk’s prediction comes anywhere close to being fulfilled, Trump will likely be the first president to hold the House in his first midterm election since Bush in 2002, potentially giving him a stronger congressional majority to work with in the back half of his term.