MOSCOW MOCKS TRUMP’S ‘THEATRICAL ULTIMATUM’: The reaction to President Donald Trump’s latest ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin might best be described as dismissive scorn. “As so often with Trump, the teaser was more interesting than the main show,” one Russian pundit wrote in a popular newspaper, according to Steve Rosenberg, Russia editor for BBC News.

Former Russian President Dimitry Medvedev, who often serves as a hatchet man for Putin, mocked Trump in a sarcastic post on X, “Trump issued a theatrical ultimatum to the Kremlin. The world shuddered, expecting the consequences. Belligerent Europe was disappointed. Russia didn’t care,” he wrote.

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The official response from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was more diplomatic. “The statement made by the U.S. president is quite serious. Some statements are addressed personally to Putin. We certainly need time to analyze what was said in Washington. And if and when Putin deems it necessary, he will definitely comment on it,” Peskov said. “For now, one thing can be said unequivocally: it appears that such decisions being made in Washington, in NATO countries, and directly in Brussels, are being interpreted by the Ukrainian side not as a signal for peace, but as a signal to continue the war.”

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov brushed off Trump’s threat of secondary tariffs in 50 days as “genuinely hard to comprehend.” 

“What underlies this ‘50-day’ declaration? Previously, there was discourse of ‘24 hours,’ then ‘100 days.’ We do wish to understand U.S. President Trump’s motivations,” Lavrov said in a session with reporters. “Clearly, he faces immense – I would even say, improper – pressure from the European Union and NATO’s current leadership, who brazenly endorse Volodymyr Zelensky’s demands to continue arming his regime with modern, including offensive, weaponry, all at growing expense to Western taxpayers.”

“An unprecedented volume of sanctions has been levied against us. We are managing. I have no doubt we will prevail – a conclusion supported by independent assessments and analyses, including those from many Western economists and policymakers,” Lavrov said. “There is a Russian proverb. Do not dig a pit for others.”

TRUMP’S UKRAINE WEAPONS PLAN IS FULL OF UNANSWERED QUESTIONS

‘PUTIN WILL BE PUTIN’: While the reaction of Ukraine backers on Capitol Hill has largely been relief that Trump appears to have finally realized that Putin is the roadblock to peace, not Zelensky, others say the fact that Trump hasn’t given up on Putin is a sign that he still doesn’t get that Putin has no interest in curbing his aims to reduce Ukraine to a vassal state. 

“I don’t see the Russians suddenly being more willing to negotiate,” former national security adviser John Bolton said on CNN. “They believe for reasons best known to them, they think they’re winning on the battlefield. I mean, the human cost is enormous, but they still consider it winning.”

“The president has challenged Putin to be able to resolve issues over 50 days. I think basically the 50 days will basically give Putin additional time to do what he does best, which is to attack and kill people in Ukraine,” said former Defense Secretary and CIA Director Leon Panetta.

“For those of us in intelligence that have watched Putin for a long time, we know that Putin will be Putin, that he cannot be trusted,” Panetta said. “Rather than giving Putin 50 days, the President should have said by the end of next week, if you do not agree to some kind of ceasefire, we are going to implement sanctions immediately.”

“I would actually argue, he’s expanded his goals,” argued commentator Fareed Zakaria. “Putin’s appetite has grown. And that the real danger here is that we are moving towards a situation where, thanks to President Trump’s weakness, Ukraine may find itself losing and losing, and then you get to a point of no return.”

TRUMP TELLS UKRAINE TO PULL ITS PUNCHES: A report in the Financial Times briefly fueled the perception that Trump was ready to let Ukraine take the gloves off and use long-range U.S. weapons to strike deep into Russia.

The newspaper reported that in a July 4 phone conversation, Trump privately encouraged Zelensky to “step up deep strikes on Russian territory,” even asking whether Ukraine could strike Moscow if the US provided long-range weapons.

When asked about it yesterday, Trump quickly dismissed the idea. “No, he shouldn’t target Moscow,” Trump responded to a shouted question. “No, we’re not looking to do that.”

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the BBC in a statement that in the July 4th phone call, the president was “merely asking a question, not encouraging further killing,” adding, “He’s working tirelessly to stop the killing and end this war.”

Trump also rejected the argument that his 50-day time frame would give Putin more time to consolidate his battlefield advantage and result in more deaths. “I don’t think 50 days is very long, and it could be sooner than that. I don’t think 50 days is very long,” he said.

“He thinks Vladimir Putin is his friend. That’s not how Putin sees him. Just to be clear, Putin, reflecting his KGB training, sees Trump as an easy mark. But Trump likes Putin,” said John Bolton. “He’s just irritated with Putin that he stood him up basically. So, he said, all right, fine, just to show that, I’ll authorize air defense systems like the Patriot to be delivered indirectly through NATO allies to Ukraine. So, that’s what he said on Monday. On Tuesday, he said he didn’t want to deliver offensive weapons. Who knows what he’ll say tomorrow?”

“So, I’m just saying anybody who believes there’s a fundamental change in U.S. policy at issue here, based on yesterday’s comments, should think again,” Bolton said.

TRUMP WARNS ZELENSKY AGAINST STRIKING MOSCOW DIRECTLY

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.

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HAPPENING TODAY: About half of the 4,000 California National Guard troops deployed to Los Angeles last month to assist in crowd control in the wake of large protests against immigration raids are being told they can go back to their civilian lives.

“Thanks to our troops who stepped up to answer the call, the lawlessness in Los Angeles is subsiding,” Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell said in a statement. “As such, the Secretary has ordered the release of 2,000 California National Guardsmen (79th IBCT) from the federal protection mission.”

Trump deployed 4,000 guard troops and 700 active-duty Marines to California in June after immigration raids, targeting farms, restaurants, and Home Depot hardware stores across the Los Angeles area, sparked sometimes violent demonstrations.

TRUMP WITHDRAWS ROUGHLY 2,000 NATIONAL GUARD MEMBERS FROM LOS ANGELES

WALTZ PARRIES QUESTION ON SIGNAL CHAT: Despite some pointed questioning about accountability for his role in a group chat on Signal that inadvertently included a journalist, former national security adviser Mike Waltz appears on a glide path to confirmation after yesterday’s Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing.

While Waltz ostensibly accepted responsibility for the mistake, he deflected criticism that the conversation about upcoming strikes in Yemen should never have taken place on the encrypted but unsecured messaging platform.

“He kind of was trying to claim that ‘I take full responsibility for doing nothing wrong,’” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA), who pressed Waltz on his defense “there was no classified information on that chat,” and that the Signal app was recommended as a more secure form of communication during the Biden administration. “And that is, in fact, true. But when I asked him, ‘But wait a minute, the Biden team never said use it for classified information. Isn’t that correct?’ He responded, ‘Yes, you’re correct, Senator.’ He was trying to be slick.”

Waltz deflected a question about whether the discussion of detailed attack plans violated OPSEC (Operational Security) by saying that ongoing probes would answer the question.

“The White House conducted an investigation, and my understanding is the Department of Defense is still conducting an investigation,” Waltz testified.

“Was any disciplinary action taken?” asked Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE).

“From the White House investigation, Senator?” Waltz replied. “No.”

“That’s not leadership, when you can’t say the words, ‘I made a mistake,’” said Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ).

It appeared Waltz would get few, if any, any votes from Democrats, but he doesn’t need them. Confirmation votes require only a simple majority, and Republicans seemed solidly behind him.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: Trump’s Ukraine weapons plan is full of unanswered questions

Washington Examiner: Trump warns Zelensky against striking Moscow directly

Washington Examiner: Trump withdraws roughly 2,000 National Guard members from Los Angeles

Washington Examiner: Chinese military companies have already spent over $1 million lobbying Congress this year

Washington Examiner: Army extends reach into Pacific with latest transformation initiative move

Washington Examiner: Netanyahu’s government fractures after ultra-Orthodox pullout over conscription

Washington Examiner: UK smuggled in thousands of Afghans after 2022 data leak

Washington Examiner: Vance casts Senate tiebreaker to advance Trump’s DOGE-inspired cuts

Washington Examiner: Military libraries ignore Trump’s LGBT executive order

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Passing the rescissions bill proves Republicans are serious about spending cuts

Breaking Defense: ​​Ukraine Battalion Commander: More Air Defenses, Deep Strike Permissions Opens Way to Victory

Washington Post: Ukraine reorganizes government with eye toward relations with Trump

Washington Post: In Kyiv, the first casualty is sleep as bombs and missiles fall

Defense News: Pentagon Taps Four Commercial Tech Firms to Expand Military Use of AI

Washington Post: Hegseth lashed out at DOGE official in tense Pentagon confrontation

Air & Space Forces Magazine: House Makes Moves to Block Pentagon from Canceling E-7 Wedgetail

Defense One: Lockheed Has Cleared Backlog of Stored F-35s

Breaking Defense: France to Raise Military Spending to $75B in 2027, Three Years Earlier Than Planned

Air & Space Forces Magazine: B-52s Escorted by Korean and Japanese Fighters as Defense Chiefs Meet

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Lawmakers Push Space Force to Invest in New, Commercial Surveillance

DefenseScoop: TRANSCOM Cyber Officials Moving to Be ‘a Lot More Active’ in Information Operations

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Funds New External Pylons for B-1, Eyeing Loadout Gains and Hypersonic Testing

Military.com: Air Force Bomb Techs Will Take Gender-Neutral Fitness Tests Beginning Next Month

Military Times: Lawmakers Want Details on Plans to Privatize Military Stores

THE CALENDAR: 

WEDNESDAY | JULY 16

8 a.m — The Hill and NewsNation inaugural “Hill Nation” Summit, with:

9 a.m. FDA Commissioner Marty Makary 

9:20 a.m. Peter Navarro, White House senior counselor, trade and manufacturing

9:40 a.m. Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK)

9:55 a.m. Rep. John James (R-MI), a candidate for Michigan Governor

10:10 a.m. Bo Hines, executive director, White House Council on Digital Assets

10:45 a.m. Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden 

11 a.m. Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA), co-chair, House Bipartisan Task Force on Artificial Intelligence

11:15 a.m. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL), vice chair, House Ways and Means Committee

11:30 a.m. House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX)

11:45 a.m. Small Business Administration Administrator Kelly Loeffler 

12:45 p.m. David Hogg, gun safety advocate, co-founder and president of Leaders We Deserve and co-founder of March for Our Lives

1 p.m. House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH)

1:15 p.m. Senate Intelligence ranking member Mark Warner (D-VA)

1:30 p.m. House Republican Conference Chair Lisa McClain (R-MI)

1:45 p.m. former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)

2 p.m. Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry ranking member Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)

2:15 p.m. House Intelligence ranking member Jim Himes (D-CT)

3 p.m. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA)

3:15 p.m. Rep. Glenn Ivey (D-MD)

3:30 p.m. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA)

4 p.m. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem  https://thehill.com/events/5227957-the-hill-nation-summit

9 a.m. — Hudson Institute China Center virtual conference: “After the Fall: Planning for a Post-Communist China,” with Chad Sbragia, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for China; and Piero Tozzi, staff director, Congressional-Executive Commission on China https://www.hudson.org/events/after-fall-planning-post-communist-china

9:15 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “U.S.-South Korea Trade Deal,” with former acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute; Philip Luck, director, CSIS Economics Program; Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chair; and Mark Lippert, CSIS nonresident senior adviser https://www.csis.org/events/us-south-korea-trade-deal

10 a.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing: “Reforming the State Department to Compete in the 21st Century,”with testimony from Michael Rigas, deputy secretary of state for management and resources http://foreign.senate.gov

10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Digital Occupation: Inside Russia Telegram Battle in Ukraine,” with Sviatoslav Hnizdovskiy, founder and CEO of OpenMinds; Elina Beketova, fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis Democratic Resilience Program; Yuliia Dukach, head of disinformation investigations, OpenMinds; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director, Atlantic Council Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/digital-occupation-inside-russias-telegram

10 a.m. —  Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “What is Needed to End the Gaza War?” with Nimrod Novik, fellow at the Israel Policy Forum; Omar Shaban, founder and director of Palthink for Strategic Studies; and Brian Katulis, MEI senior fellow https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

11 a.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Institute 2025 Security Forum through July 18, with Singapore Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan; former Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo; and former U.S. Agency for International Development executive Director Henrietta Holsman Fore; and former Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Michael Herzog https://www.youtube.com/c/aspeninstitute

12:30 p.m. 2075 Rayburn — Defense Forum Foundation and the North Korea Freedom Coalition forum: “North Korea Future Hope: Jangmadang Generation Vision for a Free North Korea,” with Hyunseung Lee, founder of North Korean Young Leaders Assembly and lead strategist for the Global Peace Foundation; Eunsook Jang, Fullbright Scholar at Brandeis University; Jihyang Kim, Fullbright Scholar entering University in Fall; Jeongcheol Lee, Fullbright Scholar at Texas AandM; Jiil Kim, student a South Korean university; Seungjae Yang, MBA student at KonKuk University; Kangwoo Kim, graduate student at Kookmin University; Joonhyeok Hyeon, law student at Kookmin University Law School; Yoonseo Chae, student Dongguk University and guest lecturer for the Institute for Unification Education; and Suzanne Scholte, DFF president with translation provided by Johnny Park of DFF [email protected]

2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Fortifying Deterrence Through Logistics,” with Patrick Kelleher, deputy assistant secretary of defense for materiel readiness; Maj. Gen. David Sanford, Air Force director of logistics operations and commander, joint regional combat support for the Defense Logistics Agency; and Cynthia Cook, director, CSIS Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group and senior fellow at the CSIS Defense and Security Department https://www.csis.org/events/fortifying-deterrence-through-logistic

8 p.m. — Jews United for Democracy and Justice virtual discussion: “Russia War on Ukraine: Trump, Putin, Zelensky, and the Search for Peace,” with Max Boot, senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and contributor to the Washington Post; and Warren Olney, host and executive producer, program “To The Point” https://www.jewsunitedfordemocracy.org/blog/event/july-16

THURSDAY | JULY 17 

11 a.m. — Aspen Institute 2025 Security Forum through July 18 with Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command; Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; Navy Secretary John Phelan; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; Emil Michael, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; and former White House national security adviser Stephen Hadley https://www.youtube.com/c/aspeninstitute

3 p.m. — Defennse Priorities virtual discussion: “A new war next door? The case against U.S. military strikes in Mexico,” with Aileen Teague, assistant professor, Texas A&M Bush School of Government and Public Service; Dan DePetris, fellow, Defense Priorities; Colin Clarke; director of research, The Soufan Group; and Jennifer Kavanagh; senior fellow and director of military analysis, Defense Priorities https://www.defensepriorities.org/events/a-new-war-next-door

4 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute book discussion: Butler: The Untold Story of the Near Assassination of Donald Trump and the Fight for America Heartland, with author Salena Zito https://www.hudson.org/events/politics-loyalty-survival-conversation-salena-zito

 7 p.m. 5015 Connecticut Ave. NW — Politics and Prose Bookstore book discussion: The Mission: The CIA in the 21st Century,” with author Tim Weiner https://politics-prose.com/tim-weiner

FRIDAY | JULY 18

11 a.m. Aspen, Colorado — Aspen Institute 2025 Security Forum with U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack; and former CIA Director David Petraeus; Senate Intelligence ranking member Mark Warner (R-VA); Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE); former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson; former Defense Secretary Mark Esper; Australian Ambassador to the U.S. Kevin Rudd; former Defense Secretary Robert Gates; former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice; and former White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan https://www.youtube.com/c/aspeninstitute