Presidential elections in Montenegro on Mar. 19 are an important test for the stability of the Western Balkans.
The major candidates represent diametrically opposed positions on the future of the country and the region. While the pro-Western incumbent Milo Djukanović has a long track record of supporting NATO and the U.S., his two main challengers favor close ties with Belgrade and Moscow. Andrija Mandić represents the Democratic Front, a Serbian nationalist party, and Aleksa Bečić recently served as parliamentary president and has backed Belgrade’s foreign policy. Both have ties with the Serbian Orthodox Church, an anchor of Serbian nationalism.
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After a prolonged period of progress in regaining its independence, joining NATO, and qualifying for candidate status to the European Union, Montenegro now stands at a strategic crossroads.
It is both at the forefront of pro-Westernism in the Western Balkans and simultaneously faces serious threats to its independence. That threat comes primarily from two interrelated sources: pan-Serbian nationalism generated by the government in Belgrade and Russian state imperialism designed to subvert the Balkans against the West. Both Belgrade and Moscow rely on the sizable Serbian population, estimated at 30% of the total, and on divisions among the Montenegrin parties to gain positions in government.
Montenegro earned significant political capital in Washington over the last three decades.
The country preserved inter-ethnic peace, hosted large numbers of refugees from other war-torn post-Yugoslav republics, disassociated itself from Slobodan Milošević and his violent promotion of Serbian nationalism, and qualified for NATO membership. The current coalition government elected in August 2020 and dominated by pro-Belgrade cabinet appointees, is squandering Montenegro’s political capital and turning the country into a failing democracy much like Serbia.
Paradoxically, a coalition that was elected on the premise that it would accelerate Montenegro’s EU accession and combat corruption has pulled the country in a reverse direction.
Although the government has accused Djukanović and his previously ruling Democratic Party of Socialists with corruption, the current government is itself deeply linked with Serbian and Russian security services which finance anti-Western politicians. The pro-Belgrade government lost a vote of confidence in parliament in August 2022 and does not have a mandate to pursue the reforms necessary to qualify for EU membership. In order to break the current political deadlock, Montenegro needs to hold parliamentary elections following the presidential ballot.
Although Montenegro is a NATO member, the policy of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić is intended to subdue its sovereignty and subordinate its foreign policy. The "Serbian World" project revived by Vučić no longer includes outright war, ethnic murders, mass expulsions, and territorial capture as it did in the 1990s. Instead, Belgrade’s strategy aims to divide and weaken neighbors and dominate them politically.
The three main targets of Serbia’s mini-imperialism are Montenegro, Kosovo, and Bosnia-Herzegovina. Serbian nationalists do not acknowledge Montenegro’s distinct national identity and statehood, much like Russian nationalists do not recognize Ukrainians and Belarusians. Vučić is scheming for a Serbia-Montenegro Union, modeled on Putin’s drive for a Russia-Belarus Union, with Montenegro as the junior partner. In such an arrangement, Belgrade would help determine Montenegro’s foreign and security policies.
Washington and Brussels have tried to sideline Djukanović in recent years, viewing him as serving too long in office, whether as President or Prime Minister. This narrow perspective favored the election of an anti-Djukanović coalition in 2020 that generated domestic conflicts and froze necessary legal and economic reforms. The election of a pro-Belgrade President and the postponement of parliamentary elections will embolden the Vučić administration to push the “Serbian world” agenda throughout the region.
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The U.S. and EU must be unequivocal in their support for democratic elections that strengthen Montenegro’s independence and do not provide new inroads for Kremlin influence.
Janusz Bugajski is a Senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington DC. His new book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture.