Former President Donald Trump is betting that he can be the debate star from afar.
Trump will not be on the stage in Milwaukee when the Republican National Committee convenes most of the 2024 GOP presidential field for the first primary debate.
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The risk for Trump is that this will create the opening another candidate needs to get out of the former president and current frontrunner’s shadow.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in particular wants to make his pitch to the soft Trump voters who could make this a real race, which it presently is not.
"Isn't it amazing what you can learn when you ask the candidates about the candidates' policies instead of asking about other people?" conservative commentator and activist Erick Erickson said at his Trump-free event showcasing the other candidates in Georgia last week.
There is also the chance that the narrative Trump is “chickening out” or disrespecting Republican voters who want him to debate for the good of the party will gain traction.
What Trump is hoping is that the rest of the field will look small in his absence, starved of the attention his star power provides. That this will be an undercard debate for low-polling candidates, leaving the quasi-incumbent Republican as the main event. As wags said of the 1988 Democratic presidential field, the debating non-Trumps will be the seven (or so) dwarfs.
Without Trump, it is possible that all of the other candidates will train their fire on DeSantis. The emergence of a candidate other than DeSantis, such as Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) or entrepreneur Vivek Ramasway, could potentially further fracture the non-Trump vote rather than provide a credible alternative to the frontrunner.
And if the debate does go well for one or more candidates and it appears the decision to skip it was a mistake, Trump can always change his mind next time. NBC News’ Katherine Doyle reported that Trump’s decision applies only to the first two debates, and even that is subject to change.
Trump has alternated between boycotting and attending, sometimes dominating, debates since the 2016 election cycle.
When speaking at the Alabama state GOP fundraising dinner earlier this month, Trump promised not to play “prevent defense” now that he has built up a large polling lead. We will see if the debate decision lets any of his rivals back into the game.
In Trump’s mind, he is going for the kill shot here. He wants to keep his opponents from ever getting off the ground. He is nearly 41 points ahead of DeSantis, the only other candidate with double-digit support, in the national RealClearPolitics polling average. He is 48 points ahead of the third-place candidate.
Trump is below 50% in both Iowa and New Hampshire, which are more important than the national polls. He is nevertheless averaging a 26-point lead in Iowa and 30 points in New Hampshire.
The former president’s primary opponents have yet to threaten his hold on soft Trump voters. They have so far failed to consolidate the anti-Trump vote around any one candidate. Arguably half the field has failed to register much at all.
No one has ever blown a lead as large as Trump’s. At this point in 2011, Mitt Romney led nationally by just 1.8 points and went on to lose Iowa. He still was the 2012 Republican presidential nominee.
If they are going to meaningfully compete for the nomination, the candidates running against Trump are going to have to get people to tune in and even flourish in his absence.
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This could be the moment that changes everything, making the race actually competitive.
Or it could be the beginning of the end for Trump's Republican opponents, as the race simply moves on to the general election.