Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he does not believe a U.S.-China war is "inevitable," but he said he thinks there are some in Beijing who disagree.
Milley appeared in front of various House and Senate committees in recent weeks to answer questions about President Joe Biden's defense budget for the 2024 fiscal year. During many of these hearings, he has repeatedly stated his belief that war between the U.S. and Beijing is not a foregone conclusion.
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“My understanding and my analysis of China is that at least their military, and perhaps others, have come to some sort of conclusion that war with the United States is inevitable," he told Defense One in an interview on Friday afternoon. "I think that's a very dangerous thing.”
The United States should “lower the rhetoric a little bit with the temperature" and focus on making "sure that we have an incredibly powerful military that is capable” and that Beijing is aware of it.
“I don't believe war is inevitable. I don't think it's imminent," Milley continued. "But I do think that we need to be very, very pragmatic and cautious going forward. And we will reduce the likelihood of war if we remain really, really strong, relative to China, and China knows that we have the will to use it, if necessary.”
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has made it known that he wants the People's Liberation Army, China's military, ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, though U.S. defense officials have insisted that this isn't a guarantee of military action but a goal that, if achieved, could lead to a conflict.
Citing Xi's ambition, Milley noted that the U.S. only has four years to train and equip Taiwan to such an extent that Beijing chooses not to invade, citing the potential costs of a conflict.
“So, if you think about it, that's only four years away,” Milley said. “So, one of the elements of deterrence is to make sure that your opponent knows that the cost exceeds the benefit. So, for Taiwan, we've — my guess is we've got three or four years to get Taiwan in a position where they will create the perception in the minds of the Chinese decision makers that the cost exceeds that.”
Milley also warned lawmakers last week that U.S. munition stockpiles are in a dangerous position, in large part due to the exorbitant consumption of munitions by Ukrainian forces fending off Russian aggression, that DOD needs to address.
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“If there was a war on the Korean peninsula or great power war between the United States and Russia or the United States and China, the consumption rates would be off the charts,” Milley said in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee last Wednesday. “So I’m concerned. I know the secretary is ... we’ve got a ways to go to make sure our stockpiles are prepared for the real contingencies.”
The administration is seeking $30 million in next year's defense budget to invest in the industrial base and to “buy the maximum number of munitions that American industry can produce,” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said during the same hearing.