Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) leads former Republican state lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli by 8 points in the New Jersey gubernatorial race.
A poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University released Tuesday found 45% of respondents back Sherrill, 37% back Ciattarelli, and 16% are undecided. The race is largely partisan at this time, with 87% of Democrats indicating they support Sherrill, and 86% of Republicans backing Ciattarelli.
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“Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at FDU and the executive director of the poll. “While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win.”
The poll additionally found that questions about national matters decreased Ciattarelli’s support among independents by 4 points, but asking questions about matters local to New Jersey increased his support by 7 points among independents. Ciattarelli, once a critic of President Donald Trump, has fully embraced the president’s agenda in his third run for governor.
“There’s a reason why Ciattarelli is focusing so much on local issues, and trying not to talk about President Trump,” Cassino said. “The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans.”
“Ciattarelli is walking a fine line with Trump: he needs to consolidate Trump supporters, but do so without making the race too national, or turning off voters who don’t like what’s happening in Washington,” he added. “For Sherrill, on the other hand, there’s no downside to bashing Trump as much as she likes.”
When broken down by racial demographics, Sherrill leads most groups. The two candidates are virtually tied among white voters, but Sherrill has a substantive lead over Ciattarelli with Black voters, with 58% of support to his 20%, and among Hispanic/Latino voters with 41% of support to his 27%. Still, 27% of Hispanic/Latino voters said they are undecided.
When broken down by age, Sherrill has a fairly narrow lead of 7 points over Ciattarelli with older voters aged 65 plus, the most reliable voters historically. She has a 22-point lead with young voters under the age of 30, and she and Ciattarelli are virtually tied with middle-aged voters aged 45 to 64.
New Jersey is one of two states with odd-year gubernatorial races. In Virginia’s race for governor, former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is polling well ahead of Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears (R-VA).
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The Garden State is expected to be a closer race. In 2021, Ciattarelli came within three points of beating incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ), and the state moved further into Republicans’ reach in the 2024 presidential election.
Methodology: The poll was conducted by FDU between July 17 and 23, 2025, among 806 registered voters in New Jersey.