Michigan Republicans are seeking to recover from a disappointing midterm cycle and gain ground in the crucial battleground state ahead of the 2024 elections.
Republicans will have a number of opportunities to flip seats in the critical swing state, particularly after Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) announced she wouldn’t seek reelection for her competitive House seat and will instead run for the Senate. Slotkin’s absence opens up a key seat in the lower chamber that Republicans will target to maintain their narrow majority in 2024 while also setting up a tough battle to replace the retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI).
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Here’s a breakdown of Michigan Republicans’ biggest challenges as they devise election strategies:
GOP chairwoman threatens to drive away voters
Republicans’ biggest challenge in the 2024 cycle might just be Republicans themselves — specifically the state party chairwoman.
The Michigan GOP is led by Chairwoman Kristina Karamo, who unsuccessfully ran for secretary of state in 2022 but lost to Democrat Jocelyn Benson. Karamo was appointed to lead the state party despite refusing to concede her election loss, which could pose challenges for Republicans as they seek to drive voter turnout in 2024.
Some GOP strategists say her presence and refusal to accept the midterm election results could cause mistrust among Republican voters, preventing them from casting their ballots in 2024.
“There’s a cautious optimism with regard to how she may run the party, what kind of infrastructure will she put together, how the donors will react,” Saul Anuzis, former Michigan Republican Party chairman, told the Hill. “Most people are cautiously supportive and optimistic but at the same time concerned not knowing how it’s going to pan out.”
Slotkin’s House seat opens opportunity for Republicans in key district
Slotkin announced her plans on Monday to run to replace Stabenow instead of running to defend her competitive House seat. Slotkin’s absence in the race prompted election forecasters to rate her seat as a toss-up in the 2024 cycle, giving Republicans a chance to flip the district to maintain control of the House.
The race is expected to be competitive after Slotkin narrowly won reelection in 2022, defeating Republican challenger Tom Barrett in the newly redrawn 7th Congressional District. That election emerged as one of the most closely watched races in the midterm cycle and one of the most expensive.
No candidates have thrown their hats in the ring to replace Slotkin for either party. Still, the race is expected to become another high-profile election as both Republicans and Democrats seek control of the House in 2024.
Republicans target Senate seat
Meanwhile, Republicans are homing in on the Senate seat being vacated by Stabenow, hoping to flip a seat that a Republican in Michigan hasn’t held since 1994.
Slotkin is expected to face a crowded field of challengers in the Democratic primary, including Benson, Reps. Debbie Dingell and Haley Stevens, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.
No Republican has declared their intent to run for the seat, but the party is reportedly floating a number of contenders. One such option is Rep. Peter Meijer, who didn't survive his reelection bid in 2022 after voting to impeach former President Donald Trump.
Republicans’ chances may depend on GOP presidential candidate
While Republicans focus on their electoral changes, several GOP strategists acknowledge that their chances may depend on whether the party’s presidential nominee can drive voter turnout.
“In many ways, a Republican cannot win the U.S. Senate race in 2024 without Michigan being a competitive presidential battleground state,” Republican strategist Dennis Lennox told the Hill.
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Michigan has long been a competitive swing state, with Trump narrowly eking out a victory over then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016. President Joe Biden then went on to win the state by 3 points in 2020.
The GOP primary field for the presidential election is still taking shape, with only Trump, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy announcing their candidacies so far. However, the candidate pool is expected to grow far more crowded in the coming months.