Meta and Google stand to gain the majority of TikTok‘s ad revenue if the popular app doesn’t survive an attempt by Congress to ban the platform.
Congress passed a law last year that is forcing China-based ByteDance to sell TikTok or it will be removed from app stores in the United States. As the divestiture deadline of Jan. 19 approaches, the future of its advertisers hangs in the balance.
Analysis from eMarketer projects that Instagram would recover 22% of TikTok’s ad dollars while Facebook would take 17.1% — which are both owned by Meta. Then, YouTube, which is owned by Google, would have about 10.7% to itself. Another 18.3% would likely be shared between Snapchat, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Reddit, and X.
This analysis comes as the general manager of agency business for TikTok’s U.S. arm, Jack Bamberger, had his last day on Jan. 3. Bamberger joined in March to be the middleman for the platform and its U.S. advertisers. TikTok’s North American head of ad sales, Sameer Singh, also left in recent weeks.
President-elect Donald Trump joined the platform during his campaign and less than a week later promised he “will never ban TikTok.” Since then, the president-elect has garnered over 14 million followers and credited the platform for winning the youth vote by 34 points.
YouTuber Mr. Beast and X owner Elon Musk have both teased buying TikTok themselves. TikTok hasn’t pursued divestiture and opted instead to challenge the ban legally.
The Washington Examiner reached TikTok for comment.
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TikTok filed its lawsuit in the weeks following President Joe Biden’s signing of the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, alleging that the ban would violate the platform’s First Amendment right. That lawsuit was followed by another lawsuit filed by TikTok users. A U.S. appeals court upheld the law, but the Supreme Court is considering the case.
While the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case on Jan. 10, it has yet to grant an emergency injunction, which would temporarily block the ban.