Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) folded to several demands from his right flank to be elected House speaker — and now, those concessions could come back to haunt him as he attempts to negotiate with the White House on a solution to the looming debt ceiling crisis.
The stakes are high. If the Republican-led House can't reach a compromise with President Joe Biden, the country could default on its debt for the first time in American history. But the standoff also serves as the first big test of McCarthy's speakership.
GROUP OF 16 REPUBLICAN REBELS PATH TO DERAIL MCCARTHY NEGOTIATIONS OVER DEBT CEILING
McCarthy has pledged not to raise taxes, a key plank of the Republican Party, as part of any deal. But he's also taken cuts to Medicare and Social Security off the table, revealing how the popular social programs have become a third rail in American politics. With defense hawks bristling at the idea of cuts to the Pentagon's budget, McCarthy is left with few areas to slash.
And if he proposes cuts to food stamps or other assistance to the poor, he opens his party up to attacks in the 2024 election cycle.
Caught between a White House that refuses to agree to anything other than a clean debt limit increase and GOP hard-liners who demand fiscal reforms, McCarthy has a difficult tight-rope to walk and only a few votes to spare in a rebellious conference.
McCarthy first met with Biden last month to begin negotiations on the debt ceiling. However, that meeting ended without a binding agreement as the White House remains adamant it will not discuss federal spending until the borrowing limit is lifted. Meanwhile, McCarthy has drawn his own line — that spending cuts are required — but beyond that, his party is split over which programs to ax or pare back.
McCarthy made deals with at least 20 GOP lawmakers in exchange for their support in the leadership elections, including a pledge that allows a single member to call for a vote to remove him from his leadership post. That concession could prove disastrous for McCarthy and serves to keep him beholden to the hard-liners who reluctantly elected him.
Among his concessions, McCarthy agreed to work toward a budget that balances in 10 years and to fight for a deal that rolls spending back to fiscal 2022 levels, tantamount to a $130 billion cut.
McCarthy has worked to find a solution among GOP lawmakers. The House speaker organized a meeting between five of the party’s top leaders to discuss possible compromises, according to CNN. Similar talks are expected to continue when the House returns next week.
After that, McCarthy is expected to hold another in-person talk with Biden as they continue their negotiations.
If McCarthy cannot find a path forward, centrists in his party may reach across the aisle to approve a debt ceiling hike on their own.
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The White House and several Senate Democrats have surmised that McCarthy doesn’t have the votes needed to pass his own version of debt ceiling legislation, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) warning it could lead to a default with "devastating consequences."