House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is staying quiet on the 2024 Republican presidential primary amid fears a Trump victory could cost him his House majority.
While the majority of the Republican Party appears to be rallying behind former President Donald Trump, McCarthy is wary of a civil war erupting within his caucus, particularly between Trump's backers and those of other candidates, such as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). Some House Republicans speculate McCarthy is hoping against the nomination of Trump, who helped secure him his speakership. A Trump nomination could doom the campaigns of several swing state representatives, costing McCarthy his majority and possibly his leadership position.
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“The reality is, if we get Trump, there’s probably a good possibility that we don’t keep the House” next fall, an anonymous House conservative told Politico. “McCarthy knows that. He knows that if Trump’s on top of the ticket, that we probably lose New York and California. ... If we lose the House, there’s no way McCarthy stays as minority leader. He’s gone.”
Facing the possible end of his relevance if he fails to retake the majority in 2024, McCarthy's fortunes may continue to decline if Trump begins to question why he hasn't received his endorsement.
Every Republican in a swing seat has refused to speak for or against Trump, with the exception of Rep. George Santos (R-NY), whose federal indictments are widely expected to cost him his seat in 2024.
Other House Republicans have taken a different view. The pro-Trump Rep. Dan Meuser (R-PA) told Politico that McCarthy is already a de facto supporter of Trump's candidacy but is waiting to endorse him so as not to alienate allies of those competing against Trump.
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“‘Hey, you’re with DeSantis right now. That’s OK. We get that,'" Meuser described McCarthy's 2024 message to Republicans. "'You’re with Mike Pence, Tim Scott. But in the end, we’ve got to come together with who’s going to be our winning candidate.’”
Despite McCarthy's hesitance, Trump holds a clear advantage in House Republican support. So far, the former president has secured approximately 60 endorsements, compared to just five for his closest competitor, DeSantis.