The consumer price index report for the month of May was broadly positive, with prices remaining flat and the annual inflation rate ticking down by a tenth of a percentage.

The data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday are welcome news to both consumers and President Joe Biden. You’ll be hearing about this report constantly for the foreseeable future. 

The Biden administration will use this data to project economic strength and argue that inflation is finally under control. The better than expected report deserves a closer look, however, and requires a perspective that yields analysis more nuanced than simply stating that “inflation is down.”

The slight cooling came predominantly from a 3.6% decrease in gas prices. A more important aspect of the consumer price index is shelter inflation, however, which broadly measures housing costs. 

That figure rose 0.4% during the month of May and 5.4% over the year. 

Inflation and cost of living are not the same thing. The former may have cooled last month, sure, but the latter did not. High rent prices have a far more significant impact on individuals and families than a slight drop in gas prices.

Two-thirds of the annual increase in inflation is due to shelter prices. The disproportionate impact this metric has on the consumer price index has been contributing significantly to the difficulty of reining in inflation. 

The cost of a median-priced home has more than doubled since Biden took office, according to the Heritage Foundation. Combine that with high interest rates and the aforementioned rent increases, and it’s easy to see why people aren’t feeling too optimistic about their finances. 

That disconnect between inflation and the cost of living is central to why Biden is struggling so much to convince the public that the economy is booming. He can cite job growth, a low unemployment rate, and this most recent inflation report as much as he wants, but those metrics aren’t nearly as important as he would like to believe. 

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A family with two children still won’t be able to outbid a private equity firm on a house no matter how many jobs are added to the economy next month. A recent college graduate paying high rent prices will still struggle to make ends meet regardless of how low the unemployment rate is. 

The math being done at kitchen tables all across the country is very bleak, and that’s what really matters.