Defeated opponents of the Ohio abortion access rights constitutional amendment and recreational marijuana statute ballot measures say that steep losses in the Buckeye State require a change of strategy heading into the 2024 election cycle but should not be misread as the state turning purple.
The "yes" victory for Issue 1 and Issue 2 made Ohio the fourth state to enshrine abortion into its constitution, as well as the 24th state to legalize recreational marijuana. Both measures passed with healthy majorities, nearing 60%.
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The trajectory of Ohio will likely be key in the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Up until President Joe Biden lost Ohio in 2020, no president had successfully won his bid for the White House without Ohio's 18 Electoral College votes since President John F. Kennedy in 1960.
Greg Lawson of the conservative Buckeye Institute told the Washington Examiner that he believes the race in Ohio is not necessarily indicative of Ohio's general political outlook heading into the next presidential cycle.
"I think there's gonna be a lot of people who are gonna say that this is the canary in the coal mine, [but] I would say that people on either side of this probably are overinterpreting [the results]. I think there was a lot of very unique things to these particular ballot issues," Lawson said.
The Buckeye State has long been the quintessential swing state, but it has leaned red since the victory of Donald Trump in 2016. Lawson contended, however, that much of Ohio's shift toward right-leaning populism stems from its post-industrial economy and distrust of global economic integration, which he said will be more important than social matters in 2024.
Of the 20 counties in Ohio that voted for Trump in the 2020 election, 18 swung in favor of Issue 1 this week. Twelve of those counties surrounded the northern Ohio industrial centers of Cleveland, Akron, and Toledo.
Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is running for Senate against incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) next year, told the Washington Examiner that he thinks abortion is not the main focus of the race.
"I will always fight for the rights of the unborn and healthcare for women," LaRose said. "As we approach 2024, I firmly believe the economy and what Sherrod Brown has done to Ohio will be the main issue that voters will be weighing when they cast their ballots."
LaRose played a crucial role in the anti-Issue 1 fight, including putting "unborn child" into the summary of the amendment that appeared on the ballot. The secretary of state also strongly supported the six-week abortion ban signed into law by Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) in 2019, which has been tied up in the courts since the federal Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022.
"Ohio is definitely not like an Illinois or Colorado," said Kelsey Pritchard, director of state affairs at SBA Pro-Life America, which campaigned heavily against Issue 1. "They are still kind of in that purple state all around, leaning red sometimes."
Pritchard told the Washington Examiner that the pro-abortion-rights side tailored its messaging toward the sensibilities of Ohioans, playing on fears that the six-week abortion ban would not allow for miscarriage care or ectopic pregnancy treatment — claims Pritchard said were inaccurate.
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), who also ardently opposed Issue 1, said on Wednesday that the "no" campaign on abortion "got creamed among voters who disliked both Issue 1 and also Ohio's ... heartbeat bill," indicating the centrist view in Ohio tipped the scales.
"Give people a choice between abortion restrictions very early in pregnancy with exceptions or the pro-choice position, and the pro-life view has a fighting chance," Vance said. "Give people a heartbeat bill with no exceptions, and it loses. ... We've spent so much time winning a legal argument on abortion that we've fallen behind on the moral argument."
Although the abortion amendment has drawn significantly more national attention, some Ohioans argue the success of Issue 1 and Issue 2 was partially influenced by both of them being on the ballot at the same time.
Rick Carfagna of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce said the ballot measure could have generated "cross-pollination [or] co-mingling of voters."
"The pro-Issue 2 people realize that a lot of people that are coming out to vote for reproductive rights are going to be amenable to their issue as well, and vice versa," Carfagna said. "The Issue 1 folks know that people are going to come to the polls to legalize recreational marijuana and [would say,] 'If you believe in liberty and freedom, you should come up and support our issue, too.'"
Vance also noted that Democrats significantly outperform Republicans on both spending and voter turnout during off-cycle election years, suggesting a change of direction in Republican leadership heading into 2024.
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"The national party should be focused on two, and only two, issues: how to juice turnout in off-year elections and how to close the finance gap with Democrats," Vance said.
DeWine declined the Washington Examiner's request for comment.