Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced he would not be running for reelection to the Senate next year, raising eyebrows about what the West Virginia Democrat might do next — all the while reigniting fears among Democrats that his entry into the presidential race could cost President Joe Biden the White House in 2024.
Manchin has not indicated whether he intends to run for president next year, but the Democratic senator’s resignation announcement comes at a time when voters are eagerly looking for an alternative to Biden and former President Donald Trump — giving Manchin an opening should he decide to launch a presidential bid.
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Manchin’s retirement comes just days after a national poll from the New York Times showed Biden losing to Trump in five of the six most crucial battleground states next year, prompting Democrats to consider whether the 80-year-old president is the best option to lead the ticket next year. Across the six states — which includes Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan — Biden trails Trump by an average of 48% to 44%.
But when Biden is taken out of the equation, the poll showed that a generic unnamed “Democratic candidate” could shift the race in Democrats’ favor — turning their deficit into an eight-point lead against Trump.
Those findings, followed shortly by Manchin’s announcement that he is now essentially a free agent, could put him in position for Democrats to court him for the nomination and urge Biden to bow out.
Even if Manchin did run in 2024, it’s not clear whether he would run as an independent candidate or if he’d join forces with some third-party group such as No Labels. The West Virginia Democrat has previously indicated he would only consider a No Labels ticket if it had a viable path to the presidency and had ballot access in all 50 states, noting he would only enter the presidential race if he could win. No Labels has qualified for ballot access in 12 states as of last month.
“I’ve never been in any race I’ve ever spoiled, I’ve been in races to win,” Manchin said at a No Labels event earlier this year. “And if I get in the race, I’m going to win.”
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No Labels has garnered national attention in recent months as it actively courts centrists in both parties who could make up a 2024 presidential “unity ticket” as an alternative to “divisive” candidates. The group has described these efforts as an “insurance policy” in the 2024 presidential election, vowing to drop its bid if either party manages to provide a candidate whom centrist voters can accept.
The group said it plans to hold a nominating convention in the spring of next year, noting it has not yet decided who it would tap to lead its ticket. However, Manchin has long been considered a top contender for the group.