Democrats are already wary about the 2024 election, as more than 20 of their Senate seats are up for reelection. Seven seats held by Senate Democrats are considered vulnerable heading into the next cycle, and one of them has yet to announce if he will seek another term: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV).
Manchin is best known for regularly antagonizing the Biden administration, often splitting from his own party to vote against key issues such as eliminating the filibuster or packages addressing climate change and social spending. He's joined Republicans in voting to roll back the Clean Water Rule and overturn ESG investments, as well as supporting the nomination of now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
WEST VIRGINIA SENATE GOP PRIMARY HEATING UP AS PARTY SEEKS TO GAIN 2024 SENATE MAJORITY
The West Virginia senator and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MN), who also tends to vote outside of party lines, are the only senators who are poised to run for reelection in states that former President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2020. While Manchin won his first full term in 2012 by a large margin and by 3 points in 2018, he is likely to find winning a third term more challenging as the GOP sets its sights on his seat.
The Republican primary race is already heating up without Manchin's reelection announcement. Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) announced in November 2022, shortly after Republicans' weaker-than-expected midterm elections performance, that he would be running for Senate in 2024, declaring that Manchin was too "liberal" for West Virginians.
West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey said last week he will not enter the 2024 Senate race, instead opting to run for governor to succeed Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), who is term-limited and cannot run for reelection. Morrisey has teased running for Senate and governor since the 2022 midterm elections. Morrisey lost to Manchin in the 2018 Senate race.
Justice is considered to be Manchin's top opponent, and the governor has said he is mulling a 2024 race entry. With his approval ratings soaring above Manchin's, it is likely that Manchin would face a tough reelection bid should Justice win the primary.
If Manchin does not seek reelection, it could make the GOP primary more consequential than the general election in the Republican-leaning state. He said he plans to make his decision before January 2024.
Manchin has held onto his seat despite the large Republican voting base. He's even made comments indicating that he could be running for reelection, waging a bid for the White House, or simply retiring from politics altogether. If he retires, it will likely secure a Senate seat for the GOP.
If he decides to run for the presidency, it would likely create even more friction between himself and the Democratic Party, which is likely to run President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for 2024.
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Other races that are considered vulnerable for Democrats in 2024 include Tester and Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Bob Casey (D-PA), and Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). Sinema, who left the party earlier this year, has not announced whether she is running for reelection. One of Michigan's Senate seats, held by longtime Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), will be open after Stabenow said she will not seek reelection for a fifth term. The seat leans Democratic, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
Baldwin announced her reelection campaign on Wednesday, two days after Casey announced his intention to secure a fourth term. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are among the 2024 battleground states as Republicans look to broaden their House majority and flip the Senate to their control. Democrats are going to have to defend seats in three red states: Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.