Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has been the only Democrat whom West Virginia has sent to Washington since the 2014 elections, but the 2024 race is likely to be contested as Republicans seek to flip the remaining seat to their control.
The centrist Democrat survived a challenge in 2018 despite the state's rapid shift toward the Republican Party. However, Manchin may not be an easy incumbent to take down in next year's Senate election, should he decide to run for reelection.
JOE MANCHIN HAMMERS 'DYSFUNCTIONAL' BIDEN ON CALL WITH 2024 THIRD PARTY
Mark Blankenship, a GOP pollster in the Mountain State, cautioned against counting Manchin out of the 2024 Senate race while speaking to Politico.
“There is a reason that Joe Manchin is basically the last standing Democrat in a state that has had a red tsunami since 2014,” Blankenship said. “You can’t say that it’s impossible for him to win because he’s won so much.”
Manchin has not said what his plans for 2024 are, but a run for reelection to his Senate seat or a run for president have been floated as possibilities. He is expected to make a public decision about his 2024 plans by the end of this year.
The Republican challengers to Manchin are Rep. Alex Mooney (WV) and popular Gov. Jim Justice (WV). Justice appears to have the upper hand in securing the GOP nomination for Senate, having won overwhelmingly statewide in his most recent gubernatorial elections.
After Justice announced his Senate candidacy, Manchin put out a statement saying he "will win any race I enter" but did not specify which race.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Justice holds a significant advantage in opinion polling compared to the incumbent senator, with a 66% approval rating compared with Manchin's 38% approval rating. Manchin won his 2018 reelection bid by just over 3 percentage points, while Justice won his 2020 gubernatorial reelection bid by more than 33 percentage points.
Manchin is widely seen as the most vulnerable Democratic senator of the various incumbents who are up for reelection in 2024, with Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) also among the most endangered.