While New York State Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani won New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary by a sizable margin, pollster Nate Silver argued on Tuesday that “in theory,” the socialist front-runner “could be vulnerable” in the November general election.

Silver discussed his thoughts on Mamdani’s primary win in his Substack newsletter, saying his victory margin against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and other candidates may not be good enough to overcome other factors.

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“In theory, Zohran could be vulnerable,” Silver wrote. “Whether you count his victory margin as 7 percent or 12 percent, that’s extremely impressive for a candidate who started out polling as low as 1 percent in some surveys. But it’s also not an insurmountable margin. While slightly over a million votes were cast in the Democratic primary, New York City has 5.1 million registered voters.”

Mamdani beat Cuomo by 7% in first-choice votes, while an additional vote count under New York City’s ranked-choice voting system extended Mamdani’s lead to 12%.

With four months to go before Election Day, Polymarket bets Mamdani will win the race by more than 70% while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams and Cuomo fail to even reach 20%. Election betting odds have proven to be reliable indicators of how likely a candidate is to win, and are most accurate closer to Election Day. Mamdani was the betting odds favorite to win the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary on the day it was held.

After last week’s primary turnout of 1.03 million voters, Silver says he is confident Mamdani could win if the general electorate mostly overlaps with the primary electorate. If turnout increases to reach midterm election levels like 1.8 or 2 million voters, Silver writes, “that’s potentially a different story.”

Mamdani, however, has “two distinct advantages,” the pollster adds.

The primary victor’s first advantage lies in the lack of ranked choice voting in the general election.

“So while you might bet against Zohran getting an outright majority in November, it won’t matter if he gets, say, 46 percent, and rest is divided something like: Adams 30, Cuomo 15, [Curtis] Sliwa 8 and [Jim] Walden 1,” Silver said.

Mamdani’s second advantage involves people’s perception of elite opposition against him, such as is the case with pro-Trump billionaire Bill Ackman promising to fund challengers in order to prevent Mamdani’s socialist belief that billionaires shouldn’t exist from becoming reality in New York City.

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Silver says the race all comes down to voter turnout.

“If turnout approaches the numbers that we’ve seen in recent midterms, let alone in presidential years, the November electorate will likely be a lot older than in the unusually youth-skewed primary, with voters who not only disagree with Mamdani on substance but also don’t vibe with his style,” he wrote. “So while he’s the favorite, he’s not going to occupy Gracie Mansion without earning it.”