The first time Eric Hovde ran for Senate in Wisconsin, he muscled his way into a crowded primary of GOP titans fighting to challenge then-congresswoman Tammy Baldwin (D).
Dropping over $5 million of his own money in the final months of the race, the Madison businessman beat out a former U.S. congressman and the speaker of the state assembly, only to fall 3 points short of Tommy Thompson, the former governor of Wisconsin.
ALABAMA REDISTRICTING: DEMOCRATS BALK AS REPUBLICANS DEFEND NEWLY REDRAWN MAP
A decade later, few Republicans are clamoring to challenge Baldwin, now an incumbent running for her third term in the Senate. She beat Thompson that year by more than 5 points. Her 2018 challenger lost by 11.
One by one, the most obvious recruits have passed on a Senate run — first, Rep. Mike Gallagher, the Wisconsin Republican who chairs the House select committee on China. Last week, his colleague Tom Tiffany (R-WI) joined that list.
The reluctance underscores the political risk of challenging a Democrat who has, against the odds, won comfortably despite being a progressive senator representing a purple state.
But it also could present an opportunity for Hovde, should he decide to run again, to avoid the sort of bruising primary that left Thompson limping into the general election in 2012. For now, he is staring down an open field.
Hovde, a real estate developer worth tens and possibly hundreds of millions of dollars, has repeatedly eyed another run for statewide office. He mulled but decided against a Baldwin challenge in 2018 and raised speculation that he could run for governor last year. He opted to hold off, expressing interest in next year’s Senate race instead.
Hovde is in no rush to decide, much to the chagrin of state and national Republicans. He’s a top recruit for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which gravitates toward deep-pocketed hopefuls, and has been approached by everyone from political operatives to possible donors in Wisconsin.
Hovde, in an interview with the Washington Examiner on Friday, chuckled at the attention he’s received in recent months. “For some reason, when you consider a Senate run, everybody wants to get together with you,” he said.
But party leaders will have to wait a bit longer before Hovde decides whether to jump in. That decision will come sometime in the fall, he said. When pressed for more detail, Hovde said he had not “set a specific time.”
“You know, it's not an easy decision. It's a major commitment of your life, of your resources, and all the rest, but I’m taking a hard, serious look at it,” he said.
In the meantime, the businessman has begun vetting consultants, according to one operative, and appeared at two GOP events last month.
He and his wife attended a boat cruise hosted by the Walworth County Republican Party on Lake Geneva, where he schmoozed with party officials and benefactors. Among those present were Tiffany and Brian Schimming, the head of the state party, according to Chris Goebel, the chairman of the Walworth County Republicans.
Two weeks later, Hovde delivered a speech at a party picnic in Dane County, where he emphasized the need for Republicans to invest more resources there and turn out rural voters in an otherwise blue enclave.
He handily won a straw poll for the Wisconsin Senate race taken after the speech, according to Brandon Maly, the chairman of the Dane County Republicans.
Hovde downplayed the significance of his attendance at the events. “Who doesn't like a boat cruise on Lake Geneva?” he quipped. As to the picnic, he noted that he has “always” attended GOP events.
“Some people run and then show up to events and then don't show up for a decade and then show up again," he said. "So, look, me speaking at a Republican Dane County picnic is no big deal. I've spoken at many Dane County Republican events when there was no race.”
Hovde did acknowledge, though, that he would start to frequent more events as he gets closer to making a decision. According to those familiar with his thinking, he is more likely to run than not.
“I'd say he’s certainly leaning towards entering the race,” said Bill McCoshen, a Republican strategist who met with Hovde late last month.
Should he decide to enter, Hovde said he won’t necessarily announce in the fall. In 2012, he waited until March, five months before the primary.
Hovde is not the only Republican weighing his options — the NRSC has also expressed interest in another businessman, Scott Mayer, who has said he will make a decision by Labor Day. Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, the firebrand conservative who attracted controversy as a surrogate for former President Donald Trump, has also fueled speculation.
Clarke touted a poll the other month that found him leading a hypothetical primary field with 40% of the vote.
Republicans doubt that Clarke will actually jump in, however, and Mayer seems reluctant — he told NBC News in April he “might” run “if no one else comes up to the plate.” The big-spending Club for Growth, meanwhile, told reporters in a press briefing last month that it is not interviewing any GOP challengers in the state.
That means Hovde could have the field all to himself, allowing him to save his money for a general election challenge against Baldwin.
Just the threat of a large financial commitment from Hovde would clear the field, McCoshen said. Though Hovde declined to say how much of his wealth he is willing to part with, McCoshen and a second operative believe he would put forward at least $10 million.
“If you've got somebody like Hovde, who's willing to put in north of $10 million, I think that becomes a daunting task for somebody like David Clarke to overcome,” McCoshen said.
The prospect of an uncontested primary is particularly attractive to state Republicans, who endured a bitter gubernatorial primary last cycle, followed by a state Supreme Court race earlier this year that pitted two conservatives against each other. There’s little appetite for a repeat — both ended in costly losses.
“We've been through some bruising times,” Maly said. “Sometimes, we come out stronger for it, but lately, not so much.”
Hovde said his ability to avoid a contested primary, while a factor, will not weigh heavily in his decision-making. He noted just how crowded the 2012 primary was when he entered.
“You talk about a contested primary, I entered it. While you always look at that, it's just one of the many factors,” he said.
Asked about a possible run by Clarke, Hovde told the Washington Examiner the ex-sheriff would be a “serious contender” but that his entry would not change his calculus. “I have the highest respect for him, but that would not dissuade me,” he said.
The big question mark for Hovde is whether he can defeat Baldwin in a general election. She is known as a strong fundraiser who places an emphasis on constituent services, and though Baldwin is one of the more progressive Democrats in the Senate, she has kept a low profile, focusing on legislation that resonates with Wisconsin voters.
Even as President Joe Biden won Wisconsin by a single point in 2020, Baldwin sailed to a double-digit victory two years earlier.
“She runs strong by herself. She's not gonna be taken down or swept in by the top of the ticket,” McCoshen said.
The same can’t necessarily be said of Hovde if he runs with Trump at the top of the ticket.
The former president won Wisconsin in 2016, the first Republican to do so since Ronald Reagan, but the margins were exceedingly narrow. He won by little more than 20,000 votes, only to lose by virtually the same margin four years later. If Trump wins the nomination again in 2024, as current polling suggests he will, Republican strategists in the state worry he will be a drag on down-ballot races.
Hovde has to assess for himself whether he can outperform Trump like Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) did in 2016, according to McCoshen. Johnson won by 3 percentage points that year, a margin that dropped to a single point in 2022.
Hovde acknowledged the presidential race is one factor he is weighing but otherwise steered around the topic.
“Look, you're always going to factor all the political dynamics that are taking place, be it on the Republican side, the Democratic side, the landscape, and what it looks like. So, you know, anybody that wouldn't take that into consideration would be foolish,” he said.
“But I'm not going to get into how I view one presidential candidate on the Republican side versus the other. If I get into it, I'll be running for the U.S. Senate race and not for the presidency, so I'll be supportive of whoever's on the top of the ticket,” he added.
Waiting until the fall to decide gives Hovde the luxury of seeing how the presidential race shapes up. By November, the Republican National Committee will have held two primary debates.
But from his conversations with Hovde, Maly believes his decision will largely come down to data and money. “I think his Trump considerations are minor,” he said.
“I think it comes down to more of a data game and how much damage can be done to Baldwin, how much money would it take?” he added.
In 2022, the Wisconsin Senate race clocked in as the fourth most expensive of the cycle, with $225 million spent by both sides combined. Of that, the Johnson campaign raised $36 million.
Wisconsin could get overlooked by national Republicans this cycle as the party pours money into three red states viewed as their best pickup opportunities: Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia. Netting two would hand the 51-49 Senate to Republicans next year. That number falls to one if Republicans also carry the White House, given the vice president can cast tiebreaking votes.
If the eventual nominee in Wisconsin can demonstrate he or she has a real shot at winning, the NRSC could always invest in the state, but if past is prologue, it may not be until late summer next year before substantial resources are committed.
Brandon Scholz, a GOP strategist in the state, believes Republicans will have to do a better job winning back suburban voters who left the party due to Trump to have a fighting chance. He noted that longtime strongholds such as Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties trended toward the Democrats in 2016 and 2020.
“Republicans have lots of challenges, not only recruiting somebody against Tammy Baldwin, not only figuring out how to get through the presidential primary, you know — but also how to bring people back into the Republican Party,” he said.
Hovde, perhaps due to his roots in Madison, the second largest city in Wisconsin after Milwaukee, seems keenly aware of this and emphasized the need for Republicans to court independents and soft Democrats.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“If I were to get into this race, I'm a big believer in Ronald Reagan's theory — you’ve got to broaden the tent, and you got to speak to people of all political views,” he said. “And you know, make the case for why your policies, your views, are better for the country and for them personally.”
Should he run, Hovde signaled he would lean on his business background and emphasize the economy, as he did in 2012.