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Washington Examiner
Restoring America
14 Sep 2023


NextImg:Longer life expectancy can solve our busted budget

We can literally work our way out of our budget deficit and even Social Security insolvency if we take advantage of scientific advances that could increase potential human life expectancy by more than a decade over the next several years.

Just as the digital chip, the last massive disruptor, did 60+ years ago, research into the human genome has put us on the verge of an unprecedented jump in average life expectancy. With more than a dozen scientific approaches already achieving longevity in animals, we believe this longevity leap will occur within the next 10 years.

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Scientists who have been studying why and how we age have been able to reverse (yes, reverse) aging in test animals and induce a more youthful physiology, with most major systems (muscles, liver, brain, heart, immune, even skin) functioning much younger. Their tactics include reprogramming the switches that turn genes on or off; senolytics, the harvesting of old cells that otherwise make their neighbors old; and proteostasis, ensuring that your proteins aren’t causing problems due to errors in production or misfolding. Plus, the prevention of chronic illnesses such as atherosclerosis and most diabetes really works.

The genetic revolution will create and preserve valuable human capital for decades longer. Despite the drop in fertility rates and recent decline in life expectancy due to the opioid crises, even the U.S. Census Bureau actuaries project that in 2050, the U.S. population will be about 55.5 million more than it is today, reaching a level of 390 million. That will generate more entrepreneurship, innovation, productivity, and growth. Human capital is the ultimate wealth of the nation and is wasted when people lose health and die prematurely.

As older people see their capacity for productive years expand, they should be encouraged to keep participating in a larger and more productive national workforce. This benefits mature individuals with increased social interaction, purpose, and even longevity while providing a massive boost to the economy.

Let’s postulate that if people live an additional 10 very healthy years, they might choose to work much of that extra time, so the total number of retired years remains relatively static. According to a 2022 Gallop survey, the average retirement age in the U.S. is 61. If each 61-year-old worker today were to labor just one year longer than expected due to improved health, it would increase the GDP by $340 billion (about 1.5%) annually. That’s $340 billion more than anticipated — and that’s just for one year in one age group.

As a result, federal government revenues would rise by $58 billion annually, while state and local government revenues would rise by $34 billion each year. If the predicted increase in longevity occurs, today’s 61-year-old workers could keep working through 2033 and potentially generate an additional $3.4 trillion just for that one age group.

As more cohorts of older workers desire to labor longer at jobs they like, the annual gross domestic product multiplies rapidly, generating tens of trillions of dollars over the next decade to spend on personal and societal priorities, including increasing pension and medical trust funds that people will be tapping into at much older ages than they do today. Even the federal deficit starts to decline.

This opportunity might be even larger since our younger years are less productive than later years when experience and promotion result in higher salaries. Depending on how quickly the longevity disruptor arrives, Congress could delay raising the age of qualification for Social Security and Medicare.

The economic prospects from longevity are bright. Today, working past age 65 is no longer rare, but it’s still difficult to imagine 75-year-olds as a major part of the workforce, especially since the current life expectancy is 77 years. Imagine what happens when life expectancy reaches 87, which could happen soon for many of the healthy people reading this article.

Doomsayers worry the breakthroughs in medicine and technology that are lengthening the human lifespan will mire the world in elderly, unproductive people. But it’s time to flip this narrative and envision a world in which healthy, active, and engaged 80 to 90-year-olds aren’t just contributing to the economy, but driving it.

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Dr. Mehmet Oz is professor emeritus at Columbia University, a New York Times #1 best selling author, and board chair for the teen charity Healthcorps.org. He was the multiple Emmy awarding winning host of The Dr Oz Show. Michael F. Roizen MD is professor of medicine at the Cleveland Clinic Lerner College of Medicine at Case Western Reserve University, emeritus chief wellness officer at the Cleveland Clinic, and a New York Times #1 bestselling author. Albert Ratner is a student of population economics who was CEO and co-board chair of NYSE company Forest City Enterprises for more than 25 years. And Peter Linneman, PhD, is an emeritus professor at the Wharton School and founding principal of Linneman Associates. He has served on more than 20 corporate boards, and was chairman of Rockefeller Center Properties.