Republicans are in a slightly stronger position to defend their House majority after Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) announced she would switch districts next year, boosting the party’s chances of holding on to the contested seat. But challenges remain for Boebert to stay in office.
In a bombshell announcement on Wednesday, Boebert announced she would not seek reelection in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District and instead run to represent the 4th Congressional District on the opposite side of the state. Her departure from the race improves Republicans’ chances of holding on to the seat, shifting the district from a "toss-up" to "lean Republican," according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
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The shift gives Republicans a slight advantage in holding on to their slim majority next year as it reduces the number of GOP-held toss-up districts to just 14. Democrats have 10 toss-up districts in the 2024 cycle.
Boebert’s absence from the race also paves the way for centrist Republican Jeff Hurd, an attorney from Grand Junction, to face off against Democratic challenger Adam Frisch, whom Boebert narrowly defeated in 2022. Frisch posed a strong challenge to the incumbent, losing by only 546 votes and vastly outraising her thus far in the 2024 cycle.
Although Boebert's move shifts the direction in Republicans' direction, Frisch maintained confidence in his prospects.
"We have one of the greatest name ID, fundraising, and district-wide relationship advantages from any challenger in the country," Frisch told the Washington Examiner. "From Day One of this race, I have been squarely focused on defending rural Colorado's way of life and offering common sense solutions to the problems facing the families of Colorado's 3rd Congressional District. My focus will remain the same, and I look forward to bringing these issues with me to Congress in 2024."
Boebert still faces an uphill battle to maintain a spot in Congress as she shifts her focus to Colorado’s 4th Congressional District. The seat is held by Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO), who announced in November that he would not seek reelection, citing frustrations with his Republican colleagues in the House.
Buck’s retirement has already attracted a crowded field of Republicans seeking to replace the four-term incumbent, meaning Boebert must face at least six challengers to secure the party nomination. One Republican candidate has already hit out against Boebert for making the switch, criticizing her for opting to run in a district where she does not currently live.
“Seat shopping isn’t something the voters look kindly upon,” state Rep. Richard Holtorf said in a statement. “If you can’t win in your home, you can’t win here.”
Boebert lives in the 3rd District where she currently holds her congressional seat. Colorado law does not dictate that candidates must live in the same districts in which they campaign. However, Boebert said she plans to move to the 4th District sometime in 2024 and “proudly represent” it.
Boebert also must grapple with a handful of personal controversies over the last few months, which the congresswoman alluded to in her statement explaining the shift.
“Personally, this announcement is a fresh start following a pretty difficult year for me and my family,” she said, referring to her divorce that was finalized earlier this year.
Boebert also attracted controversy after she was escorted out of a Denver production of Beetlejuice for being disruptive. Video footage of the incident was later released showing the Colorado Republican vaping, talking on the phone, and at one point groping the man who was accompanying her.
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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Forty-five seats are considered competitive, most of which Democrats hold, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.
However, of the 45 competitive seats, Republicans hold 17 in districts that voted for President Joe Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts former President Donald Trump carried.