Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) left the Democratic Party shortly after the 2022 midterm elections to become an independent, stating it aligned with her voting style in the Senate. However, her departure from a major party has taken away one significant perk: donors.
Since leaving the Democrats, Sinema has discovered that her financial allies are more aligned with the party than with her as a candidate. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who is running to defeat Sinema in 2024, has received $1.7 million from donors who gave to Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in 2022. Comparatively, Sinema has received $205,500 from those same donors, per a Politico analysis.
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To win a second term in the Senate, Sinema will need to rely on supporters from all across the political spectrum — Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans — to vote for her next November and donate to her campaign.
“Her fundraising is somewhat dried up,” said Barrett Marson, an Arizona GOP operative. “There isn’t an independent donor base as there is a Republican donor base and a Democratic donor base.”
Sinema raised $4.6 million in the first nine months of 2023, compared to Gallego's nearly $10 million intake during the same period. In comparison, Sinema raised $7.1 million in the first nine months of her 2018 campaign. Gallego raised $691,000 thanks to Sinema's biggest 2018 donors, while she raised only $277,000 from the same group. Sinema's overall campaign fundraising has dropped more than 20% each quarter in 2023, taking in $2.1 million in quarter one, $1.7 million in quarter two, and $825,900 in quarter three.
While Sinema does have a significant war chest, $10.8 million, at her disposal, with her fundraising drying up, she may need to seek different avenues to keep up with the Democratic congressman who is leading Sinema and Republican challengers in polls.
“It wouldn’t surprise me that she would draw more from the Republicans than Democrats,” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) said, adding that Arizona is a “center-right state.” That math, he said, “would worry me.”
Sinema raised about $53,000 from donors who have also given to the super PAC arm of No Labels, according to Politico. She also shares eight donors with the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) that supports Senate GOP candidates.
Fundraising does not typically pick up until the election year, giving Sinema time to draw the attention of more significant and larger donors. Sinema has not indicated whether she will seek reelection in 2024, which could also be why donors are hesitant to contribute to her campaign. Also, her severance from the Democratic Party further soured relationships with Democratic lawmakers and allies after she spent much of last year holding up key left-leaning policies in the Senate. So, securing endorsements from her colleagues in Congress could also be an uphill battle.
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One way Sinema could make up a fundraising gap is by receiving contributions from super PACs, particularly those supported by a handful of wealthy donors. While one does not exist for her, her record of being pro-business could boost her chances with corporate donors.
A poll from Public Policy Polling in October found Gallego dominating early numbers, receiving 41% of voter support compared to Republican Kari Lake's 36%. Sinema trailed at 15% in a hypothetical three-way matchup, with 8% saying they weren't sure. Public Policy Polling is a firm affiliated with the Democratic Party. In another poll, a two-way ballot, with Sinema out, found Gallego up 3 points over Lake, 46% to 43%. With Sinema in, Lake led Gallego by less than 1 point, with the Arizona senator receiving 15.4% compared to Lake's 37% and Gallego's 36.5%.