Kari Lake is preparing to launch her Senate campaign this fall, setting up a potential three-way race with incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).
Lake, the polarizing conservative who lost her election for governor last year, is expected to begin interviewing and hiring consultants and staff in anticipation of an October launch date, according to reporting from Axios.
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Over the last couple of months, the race has been at a standstill. Gallego, the progressive likely Democratic nominee, has been campaigning across the state. Sinema has not yet said if she is running for a second term since leaving the Democratic Party to become an independent. The only Republican in the race, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb announced his candidacy in April but is widely considered an underdog in a primary against Lake, who hasn't made her intentions official either.
“Everyone is kind of frozen waiting to see what Kari decides. She absolutely will not be beaten in a Republican primary, the only person who could beat her in a primary is Donald Trump,” said a senior adviser to Lake earlier this summer, who requested anonymity to speak candidly in an interview with the Washington Examiner.
Lake was among one of the most vocal of last year’s Republican candidates who promoted former President Donald Trump’s claims to have won the 2020 election. After narrowly losing her bid for governor to Democrat Katie Hobbs, Lake continues to challenge the outcome and has never conceded her gubernatorial loss in 2022.
Over the last few months, Lake has been on a nationwide book tour after releasing her memoir, Unafraid: Just Getting Started, on June 27. She also has been meeting with donors. She’s made multiple trips to Washington, D.C., and has met twice with the National Republican Senate Committee.
Lake has appeared on the campaign trail, supporting other GOP office-seekers, including Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno recently.
While many expect Lake to be the favorite for the nomination if she decides to run, her narrow loss in 2022 leaves some uncertainty about her ability to win a general election.
“If Kari Lake is the Republican nominee for Senate, it’s an automatic loss for Republicans in our state,” said a GOP strategist who requested anonymity. “It’s just very difficult to sit back and watch our party make the same mistakes over and over. We will deserve to lose if she’s our candidate.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in May indicated Republicans are still assessing the Arizona Senate race and voiced some hesitation about whether the GOP wants to invest resources. In an interview with CNN in May, he emphasized that Republicans will likely wait to see what happens in the primary before they decide to engage. Insiders say the NRSC recognizes Lake could be difficult to beat in a primary and doesn't want to get involved in one so late in the cycle.
New polling shows Gallego leading Lake and Sinema in a hypothetical matchup. The Arizona Public Opinion Pulse report from Noble Predictive Insights found Gallego in the lead with 34%, compared to 26% for Lake and 25% for Sinema, who would be running as an independent. An Emerson poll showed Sinema would siphon more votes from Republican voters than Democrats.
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Gallego met with Biden on the tarmac in Arizona on Monday night and discussed his Extreme Heat Emergency Act that he unveiled last month. Sinema also stood alongside Biden when he designated the Grand Canyon a national monument on Tuesday.
Gallego brought in $3.1 million from April 1 through June 30. Sinema, who has not yet said whether she will run for a second term, raised $1.7 million. Sinema has nearly $10.8 million in her bank account — almost three times more than Gallego.