David Axelrod, a top adviser to former President Barack Obama, sees no path to victory for Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) as he weighs whether to run for another term in the Senate.
The West Virginia senator, one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection in 2024, has yet to announce whether he will defend his seat. But he's also declined to swat down rumors he's considering a third-party run for president.
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Axelrod said a presidential run could provide Manchin, who trails his chief rival, Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV), by double digits, a "graceful exit."
“I don’t want to be unkind to Sen. Manchin, but he’s kind of dead man walking in West Virginia. There’s nowhere for him to go,” Axelrod said Monday on CNN This Morning.
“He’s got a popular Republican governor in the state that Donald Trump carried by almost 40 points. He didn’t win by very much last time," he said. "So, he knows that he can’t win reelection in that state."
Manchin is not expected to announce his 2024 plans until the end of the year but has kept speculation alive that he could challenge President Joe Biden for the presidency, perhaps at the head of a No Labels ticket.
The outside group, which has floated the possibility of an independent run if the 2024 contest becomes a Biden-Trump rematch, is believed to be courting Manchin for that ticket.
The West Virginia senator said on Sunday that he is "not ruling anything out" when asked on Fox News about a Biden challenge. The only contest Manchin has dismissed is a run for West Virginia governor, having already served two terms as the state's chief executive.
Manchin, a centrist Democrat, has managed to win statewide time and again despite West Virginia's rightward shift. He defeated state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in 2018, but only by 3 points.
National Republicans view West Virginia as one of their best pickup opportunities in the Senate and successfully recruited Justice, the term-limited governor of the state, to challenge Manchin.
The senator would face an uphill battle against Justice, trailing him by 22 points in a poll released last week. He polls within the margin of error against a second Republican running for his seat, Rep. Alex Mooney (WV).
The GOP primary is expected to be costly, with the conservative Club for Growth pledging to spend at least $10 million on behalf of Mooney. National Republicans are nonetheless looking past the primary.
The outside group One Nation has already fired warning shots at Manchin, highlighting his vote for the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden's signature policy achievement.
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The senator took a media victory lap this past week after securing the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a project Manchin secured belatedly in exchange for his Inflation Reduction Act vote.
But he has simultaneously distanced himself from the Inflation Reduction Act, threatening to vote for its repeal as an act of protest over the Biden administration's energy policies.